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"Despite the heightened tensions, a full-scale war [between the U.S. and Iran] remains unlikely in the immediate term."

"Trump has been clear in his desire to resolve the issue diplomatically and avoid war [with Iran] in the Middle East."

"Despite all the hysteria of war, I'm not really seeing that on the horizon."

"It is highly unlikely that Trump will bomb Iran, not least because he vowed on the presidential campaign trail not to drag the United States into a war."

"The potential of some kind of conflict with Iran escalating into a larger regional war is very real, possibly more real than ever."

"The United States now seems close to a direct conflict that Biden (and Iran) have worked hard to avoid."

"[A] full-scale war is hardly inevitable."

"If they [Iran] don't make a deal [with the US], there will be bombing."

Will There Be a US-Iran War?

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"The president cannot circumvent congressional war powers and unilaterally send US troops to war with Iran."

"You can't have a president just beginning a war on his own [without congressional approval]."

"President Trump has full constitutional authority to take military action against Iran's nuclear program without a formal declaration of war."

"History and precedent favour Trump in this action [authorize airstrikes in Iran without requesting permission from Congress]."

"I do [have the authority to declare war on Iran without Congress approval]."

Will Trump Bypass the US Congress and Declare War on Iran?

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“A collapse appears unlikely for now.”

"The collapse of the Iranian government remains unlikely in the near term."

"Our core assumption is that the regime will survive as long as its leaders and security forces retain the ability and willingness to suppress domestic unrest."

It's "unclear if the demonstrations would unseat the leadership, pointing to the sheer depth and resilience of Iran's repressive apparatus."

"It's going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall," including "defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic's political elite."

"What this heralds for the Islamic Republic in the near term is neither revolution nor collapse, but rather a slow-motion metastasis that is echoing across the political establishment, the economy, and society."

"Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed."

"If the regime does not fall this year, it may nonetheless enter a phase of irreversible weakening—one in which future shocks could prove far more difficult to absorb."

"The regime's chances of survival have reached a critical low, and its strategy of perseverance through coercion is being tested by a population that has largely lost faith in the state's ability to govern."

"The plain fact is that the Khamenei regime’s days are numbered."

Will the Current Iranian Government Collapse?

France announced on Wednesday that it would support the European Union's designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, reversing its earlier opposition to the move. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot linked the decision to the Iranian authorities' crackdown on antigovernment protests.

France announced on Wednesday that it would support the European Union's designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, reversing its earlier opposition to the move. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot linked the decision to the Iranian authorities' crackdown on antigovernment protests.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and is a branch of the country's military that answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It oversees the Iranian missile and nuclear programs and plays a central role in Iran's defense as well as its foreign operations.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and is a branch of the country's military that answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It oversees the Iranian missile and nuclear programs and plays a central role in Iran's defense as well as its foreign operations.

EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Thursday were expected to approve new sanctions against Iran targeting individuals and entities involved in a violent crackdown on protesters and in the country's support to Russia. The ministers were also expected to reach a political agreement to include the IRGC on the bloc's list of terrorist organizations.

EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Thursday were expected to approve new sanctions against Iran targeting individuals and entities involved in a violent crackdown on protesters and in the country's support to Russia. The ministers were also expected to reach a political agreement to include the IRGC on the bloc's list of terrorist organizations.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said it confirmed at least 6,221 deaths linked to the weeks-long protest movement, while Iran's government put the death toll at 3,117. The protests broke out last month in response to soaring inflation and an economic crisis.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said it confirmed at least 6,221 deaths linked to the weeks-long protest movement, while Iran's government put the death toll at 3,117. The protests broke out last month in response to soaring inflation and an economic crisis.

The United States designated the IRGC as a terrorist group in 2019 during President Donald Trump's first term in office. Canada and Australia did the same in 2024 and in November of last year, respectively.

The United States designated the IRGC as a terrorist group in 2019 during President Donald Trump's first term in office. Canada and Australia did the same in 2024 and in November of last year, respectively.

Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the European Parliament's resolution as containing false and incorrect claims about recent events in Iran. The ministry said Iran is obligated to protect its citizens' security and public order against any terrorist act or foreign threat.

Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the European Parliament's resolution as containing false and incorrect claims about recent events in Iran. The ministry said Iran is obligated to protect its citizens' security and public order against any terrorist act or foreign threat.

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