Controversy
Donald Trump
Atlantic Council
Daniel Shapiro
Jim Lobe
Mohammed Ghaedi
Ray Takeyh
Douglas London
SpecialEurasia
+3
Status:Open

Will There Be a US-Iran War?

UNLIKELYLIKELY

Claims

Mohammed Ghaedi
Mohammed Ghaedi"It is highly unlikely that Trump will bomb Iran, not least because he vowed on the presidential campaign trail not to drag the United States into a war."Mar 31, 2025
Atlantic Council
Atlantic Council"The United States now seems close to a direct conflict that Biden (and Iran) have worked hard to avoid."Apr 15, 2024
Daniel Shapiro
Daniel Shapiro"Trump has been clear in his desire to resolve the issue diplomatically and avoid war [with Iran] in the Middle East."Apr 11, 2025
Douglas London
Douglas London"[A] full-scale war is hardly inevitable."Feb 15, 2024
Ray McGovern
Ray McGovern"Trump's threat vs Iran is mainly bluster."Jun 05, 2025
Metaculus
MetaculusWill the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?
Jean-Noel Barrot
Jean-Noel BarrotIn the absence of a new deal, "a military confrontation would appear to be almost inevitable."Apr 04, 2025
Joe Biden
Joe Biden"If Iran succeeds in significantly escalating its assault on Israel, the U.S. could be drawn in."May 22, 2025
J Street
J Street"[T]he chances of a nuclear agreement or a war are both much higher in 2025 than they've been in a while."Apr 09, 2025
Alexander Langlois
Alexander Langlois"Trump has left the option of military strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites on the table should non-military efforts fail to curtail Tehran."Mar 10, 2025
Jim Lobe
Jim Lobe"The potential of some kind of conflict with Iran escalating into a larger regional war is very real, possibly more real than ever."Jan 25, 2019
Ray Takeyh
Ray Takeyh"Despite all the hysteria of war, I'm not really seeing that on the horizon."Jun 19, 2019
Donald Trump
Donald Trump"If they [Iran] don't make a deal [with the US], there will be bombing."Mar 30, 2025
SpecialEurasia
SpecialEurasia"Despite the heightened tensions, a full-scale war [between the U.S. and Iran] remains unlikely in the immediate term."May 12, 2025
Negar Mortazavi
Negar Mortazavi"The possibility of a US-Iran war is closer than ever."Jun 05, 2025
Abbas Araghchi
Abbas Araghchi"We believe that in the event of any attack on the nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the Zionist regime, the U.S. government will also be involved and bear legal responsibility."May 22, 2025
Beto O Rourke
Beto O Rourke"This [Trump] administration is gunning for war in Iran."May 23, 2025
Kenneth Katzman
Kenneth Katzman"If they [Iranians] assassinated a US president, a full-scale invasion is very much an option."May 26, 2025
Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin"Indeed, it appears Khamenei may want the United States to attack, calculating that he can rally Iranians around the flag to make up for his declining legitimacy."May 28, 2025


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