Claims
Konrad Wolfenstein"The regime's chances of survival have reached a critical low, and its strategy of perseverance through coercion is being tested by a population that has largely lost faith in the state's ability to govern."Jan 15, 2026
Nicole GrajewskiIt's "unclear if the demonstrations would unseat the leadership, pointing to the sheer depth and resilience of Iran's repressive apparatus."Jan 13, 2026
Suzanne Maloney"What this heralds for the Islamic Republic in the near term is neither revolution nor collapse, but rather a slow-motion metastasis that is echoing across the political establishment, the economy, and society."Jan 14, 2026
ISW"Our core assumption is that the regime will survive as long as its leaders and security forces retain the ability and willingness to suppress domestic unrest."Jan 14, 2026
Reza Pahlavi"The best way to ensure that there will be less people killed in Iran is to intervene sooner, so this regime finally collapses and puts an end to all the problems that we are facing."Jan 13, 2026
ISW"The regime could transform fundamentally or collapse without many of the indicators tripped. "Jan 14, 2026
RTE"It is too early to predict the immediate demise of the Islamic republic, analysts say."Jan 13, 2026
William Usher"The IRGC will fight vigorously to save the regime so I think there’d be strong possibility for large-scale violence.”Jan 11, 2026
Jason Brodsky"It's going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall," including "defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic's political elite."Jan 13, 2026
Khaama Press"If the regime does not fall this year, it may nonetheless enter a phase of irreversible weakening—one in which future shocks could prove far more difficult to absorb."Jan 02, 2026
Alex Vatanka"Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed."Jan 15, 2026
Nicole Grajewski"At present, there are no clear signs of military defections or high-level elite splits within the regime. Historically, those are critical indicators of whether a protest movement can translate into regime collapse."Jan 13, 2026
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0