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"Despite the heightened tensions, a full-scale war [between the U.S. and Iran] remains unlikely in the immediate term."

"Trump has been clear in his desire to resolve the issue diplomatically and avoid war [with Iran] in the Middle East."

"Despite all the hysteria of war, I'm not really seeing that on the horizon."

"It is highly unlikely that Trump will bomb Iran, not least because he vowed on the presidential campaign trail not to drag the United States into a war."

"The potential of some kind of conflict with Iran escalating into a larger regional war is very real, possibly more real than ever."

"The United States now seems close to a direct conflict that Biden (and Iran) have worked hard to avoid."

"[A] full-scale war is hardly inevitable."

"If they [Iran] don't make a deal [with the US], there will be bombing."

Will There Be a US-Iran War?

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Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib

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Esmaeil Baghaei

Steven Cook

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"Neither Iran nor Lebanese Hezbollah is at all likely to pursue such a course of action [a full-scale attack on Israel]."

"The fighting will remain contained between Israel and Iran, and will not persist for more than a few weeks."

"An all-out war between Israel and Iran is not inevitable, but it remains a serious risk."

"Israel & US manufactured a fake crisis with Iran that could lead to all-out war."

"There will be an all-out war between Israel and Iran and Iran will successfully disrupt flows through Strait of Hormuz."

"This [a wider Israeli war with Iran] is now more likely."

"[T]he Middle East is an inch away from an all-out war between Israel and Iran."

Will There Be a Full-Scale Israel-Iran War?

Alex Vatanka

Jeremy Bowen

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“A collapse appears unlikely for now.”

"The collapse of the Iranian government remains unlikely in the near term."

"Our core assumption is that the regime will survive as long as its leaders and security forces retain the ability and willingness to suppress domestic unrest."

It's "unclear if the demonstrations would unseat the leadership, pointing to the sheer depth and resilience of Iran's repressive apparatus."

"It's going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall," including "defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic's political elite."

"What this heralds for the Islamic Republic in the near term is neither revolution nor collapse, but rather a slow-motion metastasis that is echoing across the political establishment, the economy, and society."

"Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed."

"If the regime does not fall this year, it may nonetheless enter a phase of irreversible weakening—one in which future shocks could prove far more difficult to absorb."

"The regime's chances of survival have reached a critical low, and its strategy of perseverance through coercion is being tested by a population that has largely lost faith in the state's ability to govern."

"The plain fact is that the Khamenei regime’s days are numbered."

Will the Current Iranian Government Collapse?

The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem authorized the departure of non-essential personnel and family members on Friday, with Ambassador Mike Huckabee urging staff who wish to leave to do so immediately. The State Department confirmed the shift to authorized departure status, citing safety risks amid increased regional tensions.

The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem authorized the departure of non-essential personnel and family members on Friday, with Ambassador Mike Huckabee urging staff who wish to leave to do so immediately. The State Department confirmed the shift to authorized departure status, citing safety risks amid increased regional tensions.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to travel to Israel early next week to discuss Iran, Lebanon and Gaza. The visit follows a third round of indirect nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva on Thursday, which concluded without a breakthrough.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to travel to Israel early next week to discuss Iran, Lebanon and Gaza. The visit follows a third round of indirect nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva on Thursday, which concluded without a breakthrough.

President Trump told reporters Friday he is "not happy" with the way Iran is negotiating and has not yet made a final decision on striking Iran. Trump acknowledged there is "always a risk" when there is war, but said "everything's worked out" in past operations against Iran.

President Trump told reporters Friday he is "not happy" with the way Iran is negotiating and has not yet made a final decision on striking Iran. Trump acknowledged there is "always a risk" when there is war, but said "everything's worked out" in past operations against Iran.

The USS Gerald R. Ford, described as the world's largest aircraft carrier, arrived near Israel on Friday, joining approximately 20 U.S. refueling aircraft and 11 F-22 stealth fighter jets deployed to Israeli airbases. The buildup represents one of the largest American military forces in the Middle East since 2003.

The USS Gerald R. Ford, described as the world's largest aircraft carrier, arrived near Israel on Friday, joining approximately 20 U.S. refueling aircraft and 11 F-22 stealth fighter jets deployed to Israeli airbases. The buildup represents one of the largest American military forces in the Middle East since 2003.

Iranian officials declared "full readiness" across drones, missiles and air defense systems, with Brigadier General Sirus Amanollahi stating that ground forces are prepared to confront any hostile movements. Iraqi faction Kataib Hezbollah warned the U.S. of "immense losses" and called on fighters to prepare for a potentially long war.

Iranian officials declared "full readiness" across drones, missiles and air defense systems, with Brigadier General Sirus Amanollahi stating that ground forces are prepared to confront any hostile movements. Iraqi faction Kataib Hezbollah warned the U.S. of "immense losses" and called on fighters to prepare for a potentially long war.

Multiple countries issued travel warnings for the region, with China, Canada and Australia urging citizens to leave Iran and Israel. Dutch airline KLM suspended flights to Tel Aviv, and the U.K. temporarily withdrew embassy staff from Iran due to the security situation.

Multiple countries issued travel warnings for the region, with China, Canada and Australia urging citizens to leave Iran and Israel. Dutch airline KLM suspended flights to Tel Aviv, and the U.K. temporarily withdrew embassy staff from Iran due to the security situation.

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The Israel-Palestine Conflict

The 2025-2026 Iran Protests

The Israel-Iran Conflict

The Israel-Hezbollah Conflict

The US-Iran Conflict

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