BBC News

Trump hits out at reports that top US general warned against attacking Iran

Firstpost

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The Washington Post

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The Christian Broadcasting Network

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The National News

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The Hill

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Reuters

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Al Jazeera

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The Times of Israel

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ABC News

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Iranintl

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Huffington Post

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Metaculus

End of Islamic Republic in Iran

Donald Trump

Joe Biden

Atlantic Council

Negar Mortazavi

J Street

Abbas Araghchi

Michael Rubin

Daniel Shapiro

Kenneth Katzman

Alexander Langlois

Jim Lobe

Jean-Noel Barrot

Mohammed Ghaedi

Beto O Rourke

Ray Takeyh

Douglas London

SpecialEurasia

Ray McGovern

"Despite the heightened tensions, a full-scale war [between the U.S. and Iran] remains unlikely in the immediate term."

"Trump has been clear in his desire to resolve the issue diplomatically and avoid war [with Iran] in the Middle East."

"Despite all the hysteria of war, I'm not really seeing that on the horizon."

"It is highly unlikely that Trump will bomb Iran, not least because he vowed on the presidential campaign trail not to drag the United States into a war."

"The potential of some kind of conflict with Iran escalating into a larger regional war is very real, possibly more real than ever."

"The United States now seems close to a direct conflict that Biden (and Iran) have worked hard to avoid."

"[A] full-scale war is hardly inevitable."

"If they [Iran] don't make a deal [with the US], there will be bombing."

Will There Be a US-Iran War?

The Institute for the Study of War

CSIS

The Economist

Imad Salamey

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib

Fitch Ratings

Esmaeil Baghaei

Steven Cook

Samih Maaitah

Hakan Fidan

Abiola Falayajo Jr.

James Jos. Kroeger

Prof. Paul Brown, PhD

James A. Kostohryz

Kenneth Pollack

"Neither Iran nor Lebanese Hezbollah is at all likely to pursue such a course of action [a full-scale attack on Israel]."

"The fighting will remain contained between Israel and Iran, and will not persist for more than a few weeks."

"An all-out war between Israel and Iran is not inevitable, but it remains a serious risk."

"Israel & US manufactured a fake crisis with Iran that could lead to all-out war."

"There will be an all-out war between Israel and Iran and Iran will successfully disrupt flows through Strait of Hormuz."

"This [a wider Israeli war with Iran] is now more likely."

"[T]he Middle East is an inch away from an all-out war between Israel and Iran."

Will There Be a Full-Scale Israel-Iran War?

Rand Paul

Rashida Tlaib

Nikema Williams

Jonathan Turley

Richard Painter

American Civil Liberties Union

Ro Khanna

Greg Steube

"The president cannot circumvent congressional war powers and unilaterally send US troops to war with Iran."

"You can't have a president just beginning a war on his own [without congressional approval]."

"President Trump has full constitutional authority to take military action against Iran's nuclear program without a formal declaration of war."

"History and precedent favour Trump in this action [authorize airstrikes in Iran without requesting permission from Congress]."

"I do [have the authority to declare war on Iran without Congress approval]."

Will Trump Bypass the US Congress and Declare War on Iran?

Alex Vatanka

Jeremy Bowen

Jason Brodsky

Foreign Affairs

Crisis24

Khaama Press

Nicole Grajewski

Reza Pahlavi

Dina Esfandiary

Suzanne Maloney

Arash Azizi

William Usher

Konrad Wolfenstein

“A collapse appears unlikely for now.”

"The collapse of the Iranian government remains unlikely in the near term."

"Our core assumption is that the regime will survive as long as its leaders and security forces retain the ability and willingness to suppress domestic unrest."

It's "unclear if the demonstrations would unseat the leadership, pointing to the sheer depth and resilience of Iran's repressive apparatus."

"It's going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall," including "defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic's political elite."

"What this heralds for the Islamic Republic in the near term is neither revolution nor collapse, but rather a slow-motion metastasis that is echoing across the political establishment, the economy, and society."

"Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed."

"If the regime does not fall this year, it may nonetheless enter a phase of irreversible weakening—one in which future shocks could prove far more difficult to absorb."

"The regime's chances of survival have reached a critical low, and its strategy of perseverance through coercion is being tested by a population that has largely lost faith in the state's ability to govern."

"The plain fact is that the Khamenei regime’s days are numbered."

Will the Current Iranian Government Collapse?

President Donald Trump denied media reports that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine warned against military action on Iran, stating that Caine believes a war would be "easily won." Multiple outlets including Axios and The Washington Post had reported Caine raised concerns about risks such as prolonged conflict and US casualties.

President Donald Trump denied media reports that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine warned against military action on Iran, stating that Caine believes a war would be "easily won." Multiple outlets including Axios and The Washington Post had reported Caine raised concerns about risks such as prolonged conflict and US casualties.

Gen. Dan Caine reportedly cautioned that strikes against Iran could draw the US into a prolonged conflict with potential repercussions across the region, including retaliatory strikes by Iranian proxies. The Washington Post cited sources saying Caine raised concerns about munitions shortages and limited allied support that could endanger US troops.

Gen. Dan Caine reportedly cautioned that strikes against Iran could draw the US into a prolonged conflict with potential repercussions across the region, including retaliatory strikes by Iranian proxies. The Washington Post cited sources saying Caine raised concerns about munitions shortages and limited allied support that could endanger US troops.

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to meet Iranian negotiators in Geneva on Thursday for the latest round of talks between the two sides. According to Axios, both envoys have been urging Trump to hold off on military action and give diplomacy more time.

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to meet Iranian negotiators in Geneva on Thursday for the latest round of talks between the two sides. According to Axios, both envoys have been urging Trump to hold off on military action and give diplomacy more time.

The US has been conducting a massive military buildup in the region, with BBC Verify confirming the USS Gerald R Ford passed through the Strait of Gibraltar on Friday. Ship-tracking data also confirmed the USS Mahan, one of the destroyers in the warship's strike group, passed through the Strait.

The US has been conducting a massive military buildup in the region, with BBC Verify confirming the USS Gerald R Ford passed through the Strait of Gibraltar on Friday. Ship-tracking data also confirmed the USS Mahan, one of the destroyers in the warship's strike group, passed through the Strait.

Trump stated on Truth Social that he would prefer a deal with Iran but warned that if negotiations fail, "it will be a very bad day for that Country." The president emphasized he is the one who makes the final decision on whether to pursue military action or continue diplomatic efforts.

Truthsocial

Trump stated on Truth Social that he would prefer a deal with Iran but warned that if negotiations fail, "it will be a very bad day for that Country." The president emphasized he is the one who makes the final decision on whether to pursue military action or continue diplomatic efforts.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi said Iran is ready to take any necessary steps to reach a deal with the US, stating the country will enter negotiations in Geneva "with complete honesty and good faith." Iran has threatened to strike US bases in the region if it is attacked.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi said Iran is ready to take any necessary steps to reach a deal with the US, stating the country will enter negotiations in Geneva "with complete honesty and good faith." Iran has threatened to strike US bases in the region if it is attacked.

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