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Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine

Is this the uncensored true story of Western aggression or so anti-war that it echoes Russian propaganda?
Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine
Above: Cover of Scott Horton's 2024 book "Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine." Image credit: Scott Horton/X

The Spin


Establishment-critical narrative

Horton's book is for anyone confused as to how and why the Ukraine war seemingly erupted out of nowhere. It wasn't some spontaneous act of aggression, but the predictable result of decades of U.S. policy that knowingly cornered Russia. Washington promised restraint and cooperation after the Cold War, then expanded NATO anyway, backed regime change in Ukraine and dismissed repeated warnings from its own officials. Even when Russia proposed neutrality in 2021, the U.S. refused talks and instead pushed escalation. This was a deliberate strategy to provoke confrontation and keep the Western war machine running.

Pro-establishment narrative

Books like Scott Horton's are clouded by obsessive anti-interventionism to the point of parroting Russian propaganda. Claims that NATO "provoked" the war ignore both the historical record and Putin's own stated aims. No binding promise barred NATO expansion, and Eastern European states sought membership voluntarily for protection from past Russian domination. Ukraine was not close to joining NATO in 2022, and Moscow had previously accepted its right to choose. Putin's rhetoric and actions instead point to a broader goal: denying Ukrainian sovereignty and suppressing democratic movements he views as threats to his rule.


Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Go Deeper

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.4.1

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.4.1