The New York Times

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CBS News

Trump extends ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, until "discussions are concluded"

Truth Social

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Al Jazeera

Trump announces Iran ceasefire extension but says blockade remains

Live updates: Trump says he will extend ceasefire with Iran until negotiations conclude

Live updates: Iran warns it has 'new cards on the battlefield' with peace talks uncertain ahead of ceasefire deadline

The Times of Israel

Vances Trip To Islamabad Called Off For Now As Iran Refuses To Commit To Talks

NDTV

Us Iran Israel War Iran Calls Us Seizure Of Cargo Ship Near Hormuz Piracy Ceasefire Violation Middle East Conflict 11381147

Middle East Eye

Kremlin says it hopes Iran talks continue for the good of the Gulf and global economy

Seeking Alpha

4885790 Dont Buy The Hope Making Peace With Iran Will Be Far Easier Said Than Done

The Jerusalem Post

US delegation led by JD Vance heads to Pakistan for Iran ceasefire talks

New York Post

Supposed new Iran peace talks are looking more like a joke than a hope

Jewish News Syndicate (JNS)

Vance expected to travel to Islamabad for Iran talksreport

Kyiv Post

Vance Heads to Pakistan for Last-Ditch Iran Talks as Ceasefire Nears Expiry

Ynet

JD Vance heads to Pakistan as Ghalibaf says Iran wont negotiate under threats

Axios

Iran Us War Peace Talks Vance Pakistan

Independent

JD Vance to lead US delegation in Pakistan peace talks  but will Iran show up?

The News International

1399769 Jd Vance Expected To Travel To Pakistan For Iran Talks Amid Ceasefire Uncertainty

Dw.Com

Iran war: Talks in doubt as leaders issue threats

The Chosun Daily

Vice President J.D. Vance Departs for Islamabad Iran Talks

Guardian

JD Vance to lead US delegation in Pakistan if Iran agrees to talks

BBC News

Trump says he will extend Iran ceasefire until negotiations conclude

Benjamin Netanyahu

Ali Khamenei

Masoud Pezeshkian

Scott Ritter

Kelsey Davenport

Rafael Mariano Grossi

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

Polymarket

Tulsi Gabbard

Mehdi Hasan

Tamir Hayman

Kamal Kharazi

Barry R McCaffrey

Iran Watch

Hui Zhang

War Monitor

S.L. Kanthan

Metaculus

"No, we're not thinking about nuclear weapons."

"We have no intention of obtaining these weapons at all."

"Iran doesn't have nukes, isn't building nukes, and hasn't made the decision to build nukes."

"Iran doesn't have a bomb, and doesn't appear to be trying to make a bomb."

"They are definitely going for a nuclear weapon there is no question."

Iran could produce a nuclear weapon "within a few months, less than a year."

Will Iran Possess a Nuclear Weapon?

Alex Vatanka

Jeremy Bowen

Jason Brodsky

Foreign Affairs

Crisis24

Khaama Press

Nicole Grajewski

Reza Pahlavi

Dina Esfandiary

Suzanne Maloney

Arash Azizi

William Usher

Konrad Wolfenstein

“A collapse appears unlikely for now.”

"The collapse of the Iranian government remains unlikely in the near term."

It's "unclear if the demonstrations would unseat the leadership, pointing to the sheer depth and resilience of Iran's repressive apparatus."

"Our core assumption is that the regime will survive as long as its leaders and security forces retain the ability and willingness to suppress domestic unrest."

"It's going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall," including "defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic's political elite."

"What this heralds for the Islamic Republic in the near term is neither revolution nor collapse, but rather a slow-motion metastasis that is echoing across the political establishment, the economy, and society."

"Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed."

"If the regime does not fall this year, it may nonetheless enter a phase of irreversible weakening—one in which future shocks could prove far more difficult to absorb."

"The regime's chances of survival have reached a critical low, and its strategy of perseverance through coercion is being tested by a population that has largely lost faith in the state's ability to govern."

"The plain fact is that the Khamenei regime’s days are numbered."

Will the Current Iranian Government Collapse?

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran would be extended until Iran submits a "unified proposal" and "discussions are concluded," citing "the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured" and a request by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. He added that the blockade of Iranian ports will remain.

Donald Trump

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran would be extended until Iran submits a "unified proposal" and "discussions are concluded," citing "the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured" and a request by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. He added that the blockade of Iranian ports will remain.

Vice President JD Vance had been expected to travel to Islamabad for talks, but the White House confirmed the trip was canceled following the ceasefire extension. "Any further updates on in-person meetings will be announced by the White House," an administration official added. Iran was also yet to confirm that it would attend the talks.

Vice President JD Vance had been expected to travel to Islamabad for talks, but the White House confirmed the trip was canceled following the ceasefire extension. "Any further updates on in-person meetings will be announced by the White House," an administration official added. Iran was also yet to confirm that it would attend the talks.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly approved Tehran's participation in the talks, after mediators from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey urged Iranian negotiators to attend despite pressure from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to hold a harder line.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly approved Tehran's participation in the talks, after mediators from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey urged Iranian negotiators to attend despite pressure from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to hold a harder line.

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the first round of talks, was expected to head Tehran's delegation if Vance attended. The previous Islamabad talks, held April 12, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/usiran-talks-collapse-after-hours-in-islamabad">ended without a deal</a>.

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the first round of talks, was expected to head Tehran's delegation if Vance attended. The previous Islamabad talks, held April 12, ended without a deal.

Trump had in recent days said the ceasefire would expire Wednesday evening, effectively extending the original two-week truce by a day, while warning that a new bombing campaign targeting Iranian infrastructure could follow if talks failed.

Trump had in recent days said the ceasefire would expire Wednesday evening, effectively extending the original two-week truce by a day, while warning that a new bombing campaign targeting Iranian infrastructure could follow if talks failed.

The U.S. Navy had turned back 27 vessels as part of its blockade of Iranian ports and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href=" https://www.verity.news/story/2026/us-navy-seizes-iranian-ship-oil-prices-spike-">seized the Iranian-flagged container ship Touska</a> in the Arabian Sea on Sunday. Iran called the seizure "an act of piracy" and a ceasefire violation.

The U.S. Navy had turned back 27 vessels as part of its blockade of Iranian ports and seized the Iranian-flagged container ship Touska in the Arabian Sea on Sunday. Iran called the seizure "an act of piracy" and a ceasefire violation.

Diplomatic momentum around U.S.-Iran talks is real, and the guarded optimism coming out of Pakistan reflects a genuine opening worth pursuing. Tehran hasn't shut the door, and Russia's readiness to assist signals broad international interest in a peaceful resolution. Letting this process play out is the responsible path forward — escalation helps no one.

Diplomatic momentum around U.S.-Iran talks is real, and the guarded optimism coming out of Pakistan reflects a genuine opening worth pursuing. Tehran hasn't shut the door, and Russia's readiness to assist signals broad international interest in a peaceful resolution. Letting this process play out is the responsible path forward — escalation helps no one.

Salman Masood

Pro-establishment narrative

These talks are shaping up to be a stalling tactic, plain as day — Iran's hardliners are firing on tankers while negotiators smile for cameras in Islamabad. The IRGC is running the show in Tehran, and any concessions made at the table will get torched the moment negotiators fly home. Markets betting on a quick peace deal are setting themselves up for a brutal correction.

These talks are shaping up to be a stalling tactic, plain as day — Iran's hardliners are firing on tankers while negotiators smile for cameras in Islamabad. The IRGC is running the show in Tehran, and any concessions made at the table will get torched the moment negotiators fly home. Markets betting on a quick peace deal are setting themselves up for a brutal correction.

Establishment-critical narrative

There is a 6% chance the U.S. will conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 6% chance the U.S. will conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Vance's Trip Canceled

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Khamenei

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Monitor

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Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Vance's Trip Canceled

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Establishment-critical narrative

Metaculus Prediction

Public Figures

The Controversies

Khamenei

Pezeshkian

Hasan

Ritter

Monitor

Netanyahu

Esfandiary

Crisis24

Grajewski

Brodsky

Vatanka

Press

Wolfenstein

Affairs

Go Deeper

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