ThereThe IAEA's resolution is overwhelminga evidencepolitical toattack suggeston Iran that Iranit hasis repeatedlyforced violatedto itsrespond nuclearto. safeguardThe agreementsannouncement withof thea IAEA.new Sinceenrichment 2019facility, thealong countrywith hasupgrades routinelyto failedthe toFordo informsite, thesends agencya ofstrong undisclosedmessage nuclearto materialWestern andcountries activitiesthat asIran thewill countrynot rapidlykowtow enrichesto nuclear-gradeinternational uraniumpressure. IranIf mustWestern takepowers allare necessaryfoolish stepsenough to returnattack at this fraught time, Iran is not afraid to compliancerespond with all its international obligationsmight.
TheThere IAEA's resolution is aoverwhelming politicalevidence attackto onsuggest Iran that itIran ishas forcedrepeatedly toviolated respondits to.nuclear Thesafeguard announcementagreements ofwith athe newIAEA. enrichmentSince facility2019, alongthe withcountry upgradeshas toroutinely thefailed Fordoto site,inform sendsthe aagency strongof messageundisclosed tonuclear Westernmaterial countriesand thatactivities Iranas willthe notcountry kowtowrapidly toenriches internationalnuclear-grade pressureuranium. IfIran Westernmust powerstake areall foolishnecessary enoughsteps to attackreturn at this fraught time, Iran is not afraid to respondcompliance with all its mightinternational obligations.
ThereThe IAEA's resolution is a 50%political chanceattack on Iran that it is forced to respond to. The announcement of a new enrichment facility, along with upgrades to the Fordo site, sends a strong message to Western countries that Iran will possessnot akowtow nuclearto weaponinternational beforepressure. 2030If Western powers are foolish enough to attack at this fraught time, accordingIran is not afraid to therespond Metaculuswith predictionall communityits might.
There's a 50% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.