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Snapshot 8:Thu, Jun 12, 2025 9:00:49 PM GMT last edited by SofiaLanfri

UN Nuclear Watchdog Declares Iran Noncompliant for First Time in 20 Years

UN Nuclear Watchdog Declares Iran Noncompliant for First Time in 20 Years

Above: The flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency on May 23, 2021, in Vienna, Austria. Image copyright: Thomas Kronsteiner/Getty Images

The Spin

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ThereThe IAEA's resolution is a 50%political chanceattack on Iran that it is forced to respond to. The announcement of a new enrichment facility, along with upgrades to the Fordo site, sends a strong message to Western countries that Iran will possessnot akowtow nuclearto weaponinternational beforepressure. 2030If Western powers are foolish enough to attack at this fraught time, accordingIran is not afraid to therespond Metaculuswith predictionall communityits might

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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