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UN Nuclear Watchdog Declares Iran Noncompliant for First Time in 20 Years

Above: The flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency on May 23, 2021, in Vienna, Austria. Image copyright: Thomas Kronsteiner/Getty Images

The Spin

Anti-Iran narrative

There is overwhelming evidence to suggest that Iran has repeatedly violated its nuclear safeguard agreements with the IAEA. Since 2019, the country has routinely failed to inform the agency of undisclosed nuclear material and activities as the country rapidly enriches nuclear-grade uranium. Iran must take all necessary steps to return to compliance with its international obligations. 

Pro-Iran narrative

The IAEA's resolution is a political attack on Iran that it is forced to respond to. The announcement of a new enrichment facility, along with upgrades to the Fordo site, sends a strong message to Western countries that Iran will not kowtow to international pressure. If Western powers are foolish enough to attack at this fraught time, Iran is not afraid to respond with all its might. 

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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