Climate change

WMO Warns of 90% El Niño Chance by Late 2026

Is El Niño a catastrophic climate crisis in the making or a natural weather cycle that communities can adapt to?

Published 7 hours ago

WMO Warns of 90% El Niño Chance by Late 2026

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Above: A tourist uses a portable fan to cool down on a street in Shanghai, China, on June 2, 2026. Image credit: Yin Liqin/China News Service/VCG/Getty Images

The Spin

Climate-concerned narrative

The WMO is sounding the alarm for good reason — an 80% chance of El Niño forming by August, combined with climate change, is a recipe for catastrophic floods, droughts and heatwaves worldwide. Model forecasts show a potential peak of +3.3°C in the Niño 3.4 region, which would shatter records. The destruction ahead is a preview of what will become the norm within five years.

Jeff Berardelli on X Reuters

Climate-skeptic narrative

The El Niño panic is overblown — red on a temperature map doesn't mean catastrophe everywhere at once, and any warming spike from added water vapor is mostly temporary. The biggest super El Niño in recent memory, 1997-1998, actually produced more weather benefits than harm and suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity. El Niños are entirely natural, and fossil fuels give communities the resources needed to adapt and cope.

Steve Milloy on X