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US and Israel Launch Attacks on Iran; Tehran Responds

Were these strikes justified or should the U.S. have stuck to the negotiating track?
US and Israel Launch Attacks on Iran; Tehran Responds
Above: A plume of smoke rises in Tehran, Iran after an explosion on Feb. 28, 2026. Image credit: Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

For decades, the Iranian regime chanted "Death to America," and backed terrorist proxies in launching attacks on U.S. forces. It was always the Trump administration's policy that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and despite multiple warnings, it refused to renounce its ambitions. The U.S. cannot tolerate this any longer and that's why, in defense of America's national security interests, this attack was launched.

Pro-establishment narrative

Following weeks of rising tensions and a vast military build-up near Iran, President Trump has now pressed forward with an attack. However, unlike other U.S. interventions — such as the capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro — the outcome of this is far less predictable. One thing is likely, however — that a brutal conflict is on the cards and, as the president himself acknowledged, U.S. service members are likely to die.

Pro-Israel narrative

For years, Iran's terrorist regime has wished death on Israelis and Americans alike. If it were ever to acquire a nuclear weapon, this would not only be an existential risk to Israel, but the whole world as we know. This joint attack was launched to exterminate that threat and Israel thanks President Trump's historic leadership for taking the right course of action.

Pro-Iran narrative

Despite ongoing negotiations, the bloodthirsty American regime, alongside its criminal Zionist proxies, have waged an aerial assault of aggression on Iran in a clear violation of diplomatic good faith. Iran, which has faced decades of sanctions, assassinations, and covert attacks on its soil, has both the legal right and strategic rationale to respond decisively.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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Establishment split

CRITICAL

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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0