Middle East crisis live: Trump seeks to delay summit with Chinas Xi amid Iran war; US embassy in Baghdad reportedly targeted in air attack
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Drones, Rockets Fired at US Embassy in Baghdad
Is the Iran war a chance to build public consensus at home or extract strategic concessions from Beijing?
Above: A series of loud explosions was heard near the Green Zone, where the U.S. Embassy is located, in Baghdad on March 16, 2026. Image credit: Murtadha Al-Sudani/Anadolu/Getty Images
The Spin
Anti-Trump narrative
Trump is struggling with the "business of war," as his usual tactics of bluster and misinformation fail internationally. He needs the Strait of Hormuz open for strategic and economic reasons, yet allies resist his pressure. Unlike in business or domestic politics, deception and bravado are proving ineffective on the global stage, leaving the U.S. isolated and the conflict increasingly unmanageable.
Pro-Trump narrative
The Iran war has handed Washington rare strategic leverage over Beijing — China's energy economy depends on Iranian crude and Hormuz access, both now severely disrupted. Russia is feeding Iran targeting intelligence that has killed American troops, and Chinese firms keep supplying Tehran's missile programs. Trump must walk into Beijing demanding concrete concessions — the card is in Washington's hand.
Establishment-critical narrative
There is something deeply unsettling that few seem willing to confront: America has lived in a near-constant state of war. Decades of conflict, each presented as necessary, each carrying immense human and financial cost. It raises a difficult question — was security ever truly the goal, or merely the justification? Looking more closely, a troubling pattern emerges: in many of these cases, the U.S. was not reacting but initiating the conflict.
Pro-Iran narrative
The U.S.-Israel strikes on residential areas and fuel depots in Tehran violate international law and raise serious humanitarian and environmental concerns. Iran will keep firing until Trump realizes that the illegal war he's imposed on both Americans and Iranians is wrong and must never be repeated. Iran will continue its response as long as the unjust conflict continues, Israel is punished for its war crimes and victims get compensated.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
The Controversies
Establishment split
CRITICAL
PRO
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0