Greenland: The world's largest island
Denmark.dkJAN 10
Greenland's Strategic History
Is Greenland a strategic military necessity for Arctic security or primarily an investment opportunity for rare earth minerals?
Above: The Greenlandic flag flies on Jan. 20 in Nuuk, Greenland. Image credit: Sean Gallup/Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
Greenland is a strategic Arctic stronghold, crucial for U.S. national security and early-warning systems against potential rivals like Russia and China. Its vast mineral wealth, including rare earths, could reduce U.S. dependence on foreign supply chains. Moreover, American ownership would secure key shipping routes and resources, strengthening global influence and making Greenland a vital asset for defense, the economy and geopolitical leverage.
Anti-Trump narrative
Greenland is not for sale because it is a people, not a prize. Its Inuit population has the right to self-determination, culture and democratic choice under international law. While global powers eye Greenland for minerals, shipping routes and security, decisions about its future belong to Greenlanders and Denmark. Sovereignty cannot be purchased, and cooperation must respect autonomy, not replace it. True partnership depends on consent, equality and long-term mutual trust.
Narrative C
While Greenland's Arctic strategic value and mineral wealth make U.S. engagement vital, the United States doesn't need to "own" Greenland to secure those benefits. The 1951 U.S.–Denmark treaty already allows for strong military cooperation, and expanded investment and security presence can access resources such as rare earths without undermining NATO or Greenland's autonomy. Seizing the island would destroy NATO and burden America with welfare obligations.
Narrative D
Most Greenlanders favor a future without Trump or a return to Danish control because they want self-determination and autonomy, not to be treated as bargaining chips in global geopolitics. Polls show about 85% oppose joining the U.S., viewing Trump's acquisition talk as a threat to their identity and rights. Greenland's future must be decided by Greenlanders, who reject both American and Danish dominance in favor of true independence.
Metaculus Prediction
Go Deeper
Establishment split
CRITICAL
PRO
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0