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Over 40% of Europe Facing Drought Conditions

Over 40% of Europe Facing Drought Conditions
Above: A water sprinkler irrigates a grain field in Hesse, Nahe Gräfenhausen on May 31, 2025. Image copyright: Lando Hass/Contributor/picture alliance via Getty Images

The Spin

Climate-concerned narrative

Europe is facing a deepening drought crisis. Soils are drying, rivers are shrinking, and major agricultural zones like Poland and Ukraine are under strain. With warmer months ahead and little rain forecast, the risks to crops, ecosystems, and transport routes are mounting. Climate change is turning extreme droughts from rare events into a new normal, and Europe must act urgently.

Climate-skeptic narrative

Drought fears across Europe are being overhyped. Yes, some regions have had a dry spring, but short-term weather variations aren't evidence of long-term catastrophe. Forecasts beyond a week are notoriously unreliable, yet media headlines leap on every heatwave model. It's important to focus on facts instead of panic — Europe has seen wetter years recently, and nature's cycles are more complex and time-delayed than alarmists admit.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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