Dismissing the warnings plays directly into Moscow's hands, because the real danger is a deniable, limited strike designed to test whether Article 5 still means anything. Russia escalates when it senses doubt, and wavering American commitment and troop-drawdown talk have created exactly that. A cornered Kremlin facing battlefield failure and economic strain is more likely to gamble, not less.

European governments are fueling public fears by portraying a Russian attack as inevitable while limiting access to Moscow's contrary message. Russia has repeatedly stated at the highest levels that it does not plan war with NATO or Europe, but Russian media restrictions and the prevailing false European security narrative prevent Europeans from hearing those assurances.