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"All in all, an end to the war doesn't seem to be within close range as we head into 2026."

"There will be no final settlement either now or in the foreseeable future."

"The likelihood of a durable peace agreement remains low."

"The war in Ukraine is unlikely to end in a sustainable peace in 2026."

"There is a 22% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027."

"There is a 27% chance that Russia and Ukraine will have a ceasefire by the end of 2026."

"There is a 29% chance that the war in Ukraine will end by the end of 2026."

"Neither Ukraine nor Russia seems to be in a position to achieve a conclusive victory on the battlefield and, though both are under significant pressure, neither appears likely to collapse."

"A peace in 2026 is unlikely to be a true resolution. More likely is an “indefinite ceasefire” akin to the Korean Peninsula’s frozen conflict."

Will Russia and Ukraine publicly agree to a cessation of hostilities lasting more than 36 hours before January 1, 2027?

Latvia on Tuesday blocked an EU compromise that would renew sanctions on roughly 3,000 Russia-linked individuals and entities for three years while delisting billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman. EU ambassadors resumed talks in Brussels.

Latvia on Tuesday blocked an EU compromise that would renew sanctions on roughly 3,000 Russia-linked individuals and entities for three years while delisting billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman. EU ambassadors resumed talks in Brussels.

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said a 36-month extension "would be the right step" but that striking the two men from the list could not be the price. He said he would convene an emergency cabinet meeting Tuesday.

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said a 36-month extension "would be the right step" but that striking the two men from the list could not be the price. He said he would convene an emergency cabinet meeting Tuesday.

The measures, consisting of asset freezes and travel bans, expire at midnight Tuesday unless all 27 member states agree unanimously to renew them. The listings had already been extended by seven days after an earlier Sept. 15 deadline.

The measures, consisting of asset freezes and travel bans, expire at midnight Tuesday unless all 27 member states agree unanimously to renew them. The listings had already been extended by seven days after an earlier Sept. 15 deadline.

EU ambassadors meeting in the Committee of Permanent Representatives backed the Irish presidency's compromise Monday, but unanimity was not reached. Diplomats said the plan would replace six-month rollovers with a single 36-month renewal.

EU ambassadors meeting in the Committee of Permanent Representatives backed the Irish presidency's compromise Monday, but unanimity was not reached. Diplomats said the plan would replace six-month rollovers with a single 36-month renewal.

France joined Slovakia in seeking Usmanov's delisting, citing national security, while Luxembourg sought Fridman's removal. Diplomats said Luxembourg is defending an arbitration claim in which Fridman seeks about $16 billion in damages.

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France joined Slovakia in seeking Usmanov's delisting, citing national security, while Luxembourg sought Fridman's removal. Diplomats said Luxembourg is defending an arbitration claim in which Fridman seeks about $16 billion in damages.

Kerli Veski of Estonia's Foreign Ministry said removing names for political reasons would set "a very bad precedent." In March, the EU renewed the listings after Hungary sought removals, ultimately dropping three Russians but keeping Fridman.

Kerli Veski of Estonia's Foreign Ministry said removing names for political reasons would set "a very bad precedent." In March, the EU renewed the listings after Hungary sought removals, ultimately dropping three Russians but keeping Fridman.

Latvia Blocks EU Deal to Delist Russian Oligarchs

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Latvia Blocks EU Deal to Delist Russian Oligarchs

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