US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5%

Is this a warning that Trump's agenda is losing control of borrowing costs or a vote of confidence in a healthy economy?

Published 1 day ago

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Above: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on Sept. 14. Image credit: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

The Spin

The 5% yield is a warning that Trump's economic agenda is losing control of borrowing costs. His Iran war has driven oil and inflation higher, while $40T in debt and heavy new borrowing keep pressure on Treasuries. Bessent tripled buybacks to $6B6 billion and still failed to hold the line. Mortgage rates near 6.8% are making homes and other loans less affordable, AI debt is adding strain, and the Fed may have to hike just as Trump demands cuts again.

The New York Times Financial Times

Hedgie on X

Yields between 4% and 5% on the 10-year are a vote of confidence in an economy that is actually doing just fine. Earnings momentum keeps climbing, unit labor costs are running at 1.4%, and a productivity-led tech boom justifies these rates rather than threatening them. Treasury still has the option to lean on bill issuance to relieve pressure, so panic at 5% is unwarranted.

Yardeni Research on X

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