10-year Treasury yield hits 5%, critical threshold for US economy and markets

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The 10-year Treasury is closing in on 5%. How it gets there matters more

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Oil Jumps 10 Year Treasury Yield Hits 5 As Ai Related Stocks Tumble Worldwide Update Ce785Bdcdf89F22D

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10 Year Treasury Yield Tops 5 For The First Time Since 2007 As Bond Market Selloff Deepens 14C81F75

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Yield on 10-year Treasury hits 5% for first time since 2007, raising debt fears

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10-year Treasury yield climbs to 5% for the first time since 2023

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Donald Trump

Howard Lutnick

Grant Cardone

Peter Schiff

Felix Salmon

Doug Melville

"It's very unlikely that there would be more demand for the gold card than there is right now for the EB-5, to say nothing of enough for Trump's $50 trillion goal."

"The Gold Card initiative represents a bold and innovative approach to addressing the U.S. national debt."

"200,000 of these gold, green cards is $1 trillion to pay down our debt and that's why the President is doing it."

"1 million passes would raise $5 trillion chipping away at our debt."

"If we sell 10 million, which is possible ... that's $50 trillion. That means our debt is totally paid off, and we have $15 trillion above that."

Will Trump's $5M Gold Card Pay Off the US Debt?

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Scott Bessent

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"The United States of America is never going to default."

"The U.S. government won't default on its debt. The fear that it might do so is not justified."

"On the positive side, the U.S. is nowhere near the brink of default."

"NO, the US will not default on its debt!"

"If Congress does not act, the US could default on its debt obligations by mid-2025, a scenario that, year by year, looks more realistic."

"The US will default on its debt."

"The U.S. is on track to default on its debt within four years."

"I say to the Republicans out there – congressmen, senators – if they don't give you massive cuts, you're going to have to do a default."

Will the US Default on Its Debt?

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% on Monday for the first time since October 2023, then eased back to about 4.95% later in the session. The benchmark has not closed above 5% since 2007.

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% on Monday for the first time since October 2023, then eased back to about 4.95% later in the session. The benchmark has not closed above 5% since 2007.

The move came as Brent crude jumped as much as 5% Monday to $109.80 a barrel after Saudi Arabia closed a pipeline, before easing to $105.88. The 30-year Treasury yield hovered around 5.33% the same day.

The move came as Brent crude jumped as much as 5% Monday to $109.80 a barrel after Saudi Arabia closed a pipeline, before easing to $105.88. The 30-year Treasury yield hovered around 5.33% the same day.

Mortgage rates track the 10-year yield closely. The average 30-year fixed rate reached 6.76% last week, up from 6.15% at the start of the year and about 6% in late February, before the war with Iran began.

Mortgage rates track the 10-year yield closely. The average 30-year fixed rate reached 6.76% last week, up from 6.15% at the start of the year and about 6% in late February, before the war with Iran began.

Traders in futures markets put the odds of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase at its Sept. 15-16 meeting at roughly 89% to 91%. Goldman Sachs shifted its forecast from no change to a hike after Friday's August inflation report.

Market Screener

Traders in futures markets put the odds of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase at its Sept. 15-16 meeting at roughly 89% to 91%. Goldman Sachs shifted its forecast from no change to a hike after Friday's August inflation report.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has tried to lower long-term rates through buybacks. The Treasury purchased $5.2 billion of debt maturing in 10 to 20 years last week, below the $6 billion maximum, despite over $10 billion in offers.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has tried to lower long-term rates through buybacks. The Treasury purchased $5.2 billion of debt maturing in 10 to 20 years last week, below the $6 billion maximum, despite over $10 billion in offers.

The national debt passed $40 trillion weeks ago, and Trump said last week that Republicans would send $5,000 checks to adults if the GOP keeps Congress. He wrote Monday that price increases were caused by "Sleepy Joe Biden," not his administration.

The national debt passed $40 trillion weeks ago, and Trump said last week that Republicans would send $5,000 checks to adults if the GOP keeps Congress. He wrote Monday that price increases were caused by "Sleepy Joe Biden," not his administration.

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A 10-year yield at 5% is a flashing red warning, not a rounding error — the last times borrowing costs sat here were 2023 and the eve of the financial crisis. Mortgage rates near 6.8% and pricier corporate capital will squeeze households and earnings alike. Buybacks failed because this is a debt problem, and the Fed must hike or risk losing control of the long end entirely.

A 10-year yield at 5% is a flashing red warning, not a rounding error — the last times borrowing costs sat here were 2023 and the eve of the financial crisis. Mortgage rates near 6.8% and pricier corporate capital will squeeze households and earnings alike. Buybacks failed because this is a debt problem, and the Fed must hike or risk losing control of the long end entirely.

Hedgie

Yields between 4% and 5% on the 10-year are a vote of confidence in an economy that is doing just fine. Earnings momentum keeps climbing, unit labor costs are running at 1.4%, and a productivity-led tech boom justifies these rates rather than threatening them. Treasury still has the option to lean on bill issuance to relieve pressure, so panic at 5% is unwarranted.

Yields between 4% and 5% on the 10-year are a vote of confidence in an economy that is doing just fine. Earnings momentum keeps climbing, unit labor costs are running at 1.4%, and a productivity-led tech boom justifies these rates rather than threatening them. Treasury still has the option to lean on bill issuance to relieve pressure, so panic at 5% is unwarranted.

Yardeni Research

US Midterms: The 'Abundance' Movement

The Iran War

Abundance

The US-Iran Conflict

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5%

Economic conditions & trends

Politics

United States of America

The 5% yield is a warning that Trump's economic agenda is losing control of borrowing costs. His Iran war has driven oil and inflation higher, while $40T in debt and heavy new borrowing keep pressure on Treasuries. Bessent tripled buybacks to $6B and still failed to hold the line. Mortgage rates near 6.8% are making homes and other loans less affordable, AI debt is adding strain, and the Fed may have to hike just as Trump demands cuts again.

The 5% yield is a warning that Trump's economic agenda is losing control of borrowing costs. His Iran war has driven oil and inflation higher, while $40T in debt and heavy new borrowing keep pressure on Treasuries. Bessent tripled buybacks to $6B and still failed to hold the line. Mortgage rates near 6.8% are making homes and other loans less affordable, AI debt is adding strain, and the Fed may have to hike just as Trump demands cuts again.

Yields between 4% and 5% on the 10-year are a vote of confidence in an economy that is actually doing just fine. Earnings momentum keeps climbing, unit labor costs are running at 1.4%, and a productivity-led tech boom justifies these rates rather than threatening them. Treasury still has the option to lean on bill issuance to relieve pressure, so panic at 5% is unwarranted.

Yields between 4% and 5% on the 10-year are a vote of confidence in an economy that is actually doing just fine. Earnings momentum keeps climbing, unit labor costs are running at 1.4%, and a productivity-led tech boom justifies these rates rather than threatening them. Treasury still has the option to lean on bill issuance to relieve pressure, so panic at 5% is unwarranted.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5%

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5%

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US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5%

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5%

The Spin

The Controversies

Salmon

Melville

Lutnick

Cardone

Trump

Bessent

Yardeni

Reuters

Santiago

Invezz

Gromen

Stansberry

Trump

Go Deeper

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