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A study published in the journal Science on Thursday found that El Niño events over the past 40 years were stronger than at any point in the previous 1,000 years, with variability in the eastern Pacific now 36.5% greater than in the pre-industrial era.

A study published in the journal Science on Thursday found that El Niño events over the past 40 years were stronger than at any point in the previous 1,000 years, with variability in the eastern Pacific now 36.5% greater than in the pre-industrial era.

The research, led by University of Michigan paleoclimatologist Julia Cole, analyzed living and fossil corals from the Galápagos Islands — said to be at the heart of El Niño activity — measuring strontium-to-calcium ratios and oxygen isotopes to reconstruct ocean temperatures spanning roughly 1,000 years.

The research, led by University of Michigan paleoclimatologist Julia Cole, analyzed living and fossil corals from the Galápagos Islands — said to be at the heart of El Niño activity — measuring strontium-to-calcium ratios and oxygen isotopes to reconstruct ocean temperatures spanning roughly 1,000 years.

El Niño events in the past four decades were also about 16% stronger than those recorded during the 20th century, according to the study, with the authors associating the recent intensification with accelerated global warming driven by fossil-fuel emissions since the mid-19th century.

El Niño events in the past four decades were also about 16% stronger than those recorded during the 20th century, according to the study, with the authors associating the recent intensification with accelerated global warming driven by fossil-fuel emissions since the mid-19th century.

To rule out natural causes, researchers used climate models accounting for volcanic eruptions and solar variability over the past millennium and found no natural explanation for the scale of El Niño intensification observed in the coral record.

To rule out natural causes, researchers used climate models accounting for volcanic eruptions and solar variability over the past millennium and found no natural explanation for the scale of El Niño intensification observed in the coral record.

Some outside scientists raised questions about the findings, with University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann noting what he described as "a substantial decline in recent decades" in El Niño-related ocean temperature variations near the Galápagos during the period of greatest greenhouse gas warming.

Some outside scientists raised questions about the findings, with University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann noting what he described as "a substantial decline in recent decades" in El Niño-related ocean temperature variations near the Galápagos during the period of greatest greenhouse gas warming.

The study was released as <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/uk-predicts-record-el-nio-that-could-make-hottest-year-ever">a powerful El Niño was strengthening in the Pacific</a>, with sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific reaching 2.7 degrees Celsius above average by mid-August. A 2023 study estimated that the strong El Niño events of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 caused trillions of dollars in economic losses.

The study was released as a powerful El Niño was strengthening in the Pacific, with sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific reaching 2.7 degrees Celsius above average by mid-August. A 2023 study estimated that the strong El Niño events of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 caused trillions of dollars in economic losses.

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A study published in the journal Science on Aug. 27, 2026, found that El Niño events over the past 40 years were stronger than at any point in the previous 1,000 years, with variability in the eastern Pacific now 36.5% greater than in the pre-industrial era.

A study published in the journal Science on Aug. 27, 2026, found that El Niño events over the past 40 years were stronger than at any point in the previous 1,000 years, with variability in the eastern Pacific now 36.5% greater than in the pre-industrial era.

The research, led by University of Michigan paleoclimatologist Julia Cole, analyzed living and fossil corals from the Galápagos Islands — located at the heart of El Niño activity — measuring strontium-to-calcium ratios and oxygen isotopes to reconstruct ocean temperatures spanning roughly 1,000 years.

The research, led by University of Michigan paleoclimatologist Julia Cole, analyzed living and fossil corals from the Galápagos Islands — located at the heart of El Niño activity — measuring strontium-to-calcium ratios and oxygen isotopes to reconstruct ocean temperatures spanning roughly 1,000 years.

El Niño events in the past four decades were also about 16% stronger than those recorded during the 20th century, with the intensification coinciding with accelerated global warming driven by fossil fuel emissions since the mid-19th century.

El Niño events in the past four decades were also about 16% stronger than those recorded during the 20th century, with the intensification coinciding with accelerated global warming driven by fossil fuel emissions since the mid-19th century.

The study was released as a powerful El Niño was strengthening in the Pacific, with sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific reaching 2.7 degrees Celsius above average by mid-August 2026. A 2023 study estimated that the strong El Niño events of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 caused trillions of dollars in economic losses.

The study was released as a powerful El Niño was strengthening in the Pacific, with sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific reaching 2.7 degrees Celsius above average by mid-August 2026. A 2023 study estimated that the strong El Niño events of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 caused trillions of dollars in economic losses.

Coral records from the Galápagos make it clear — El Niño events are stronger now than at any point in the past 1,000 years, and human-caused warming is driving that shift. The intensification of eastern Pacific temperature swings is 36% higher than anything seen in prior centuries, far beyond what natural variability can explain. Stronger El Niños mean more devastating droughts, floods and economic losses, and the world needs to start preparing for that reality.

Coral records from the Galápagos make it clear — El Niño events are stronger now than at any point in the past 1,000 years, and human-caused warming is driving that shift. The intensification of eastern Pacific temperature swings is 36% higher than anything seen in prior centuries, far beyond what natural variability can explain. Stronger El Niños mean more devastating droughts, floods and economic losses, and the world needs to start preparing for that reality.

The Galápagos coral study is interesting data, but the leap to blaming human warming is a stretch the evidence doesn't fully support. The IPCC itself concluded there is no consensus from models on a systematic change in El Niño sea surface temperature variability, and large model ensembles found no historical trends distinguishable from internal variability. Natural volcanic and solar forcing can account for the observed uptick in ENSO amplitude just as plausibly as greenhouse gases.

The Galápagos coral study is interesting data, but the leap to blaming human warming is a stretch the evidence doesn't fully support. The IPCC itself concluded there is no consensus from models on a systematic change in El Niño sea surface temperature variability, and large model ensembles found no historical trends distinguishable from internal variability. Natural volcanic and solar forcing can account for the observed uptick in ENSO amplitude just as plausibly as greenhouse gases.

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There is a 50% chance that the average global surface air temperature in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline will be 1.47 °C, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 50% chance that the average global surface air temperature in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline will be 1.47 °C, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

El Niño Now Strongest in 1,000 Years, Study Finds

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