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"Broader trends in consumer demand likely contributed to slowing job growth in those industries that are more exposed to undocumented workers (construction, leisure and hospitality, and other services). "

“There’s been a crisis in farm labor for some time, and it certainly would be exacerbated by immigration enforcement.”

"That poses a huge threat to immigrant-dependent industries, like agriculture, which has been dealing with an acute labor shortage."

“The construction inflow of potential workers has been turned off.”

"Increased labor woes has caused restaurant closures, reduced hours, more turnover and higher costs, "

"A sudden contraction of that workforce would likely drive up food prices, exacerbate housing shortages, and strain already overburdened health care systems."

“With many undocumented construction workers self-deporting or simply not showing up to work anymore even though they remain in the country, many of these contractors haven’t replaced that talent.”

"Restaurants, construction and landscaping businesses have lost a combined 315,000 immigrant workers through August this year, more than any other industries. "

"Labor shortages, the closure of successful businesses, the loss of tax revenue from immigrants, and a drop in consumer spending are some of the consequences economists are warning about, which were already being felt in 2025 and are expected to worsen in 2026."

"Mass deportations would cause labor shortages in vital industries like agriculture, housing, and health care—raising costs for all Americans."

Will Current U.S. Immigration Policy Have a Measurable Economic Impact on U.S. Industries Such as Agriculture, Construction & Hospitality?

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"We may be entering a new era of protracted conflict—with Iran at the center of it."

"Any deal will be at best fragile, or at worst impossible."

"Tehran probably perceives the ceasefire as a pause in hostilities rather than anything permanent, and it is preparing for renewed conflict accordingly."

"A lasting settlement remains unlikely because Iran wants continued leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and cannot accept an outcome portrayed as a U.S. victory. "

"A comprehensive settlement is unlikely to emerge quickly."

"There is a possibility that this ceasefire could pave the way for a more permanent deal, but it is more likely this will be a temporary and fragile understanding that will, in the best-case scenario, prevent renewed war through the end of this administration."

"I think that this probably will lead to a cessation of hostilities, but it's unlikely to lead to a full agreement that really satisfies everything that on the one hand, the Trump administration would like and on the other hand that the Iranian regime would like, because I think that the two sides just still sit too far apart."

“The most likely negotiation outcome is an ambiguous version of the cease-fire continuing indefinitely, which, while unseemly, is better than the alternative,”

"I suspect it will hold because both sides have a strong economic incentive to get energy flowing to global markets."

"There is a 99% chance that U.S. x Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026."

Will the US and Iran Establish a Lasting Ceasefire Before 2027?

Hundreds of ICE emails obtained by the National Iranian American Council through a FOIA lawsuit show the U.S. and Iran coordinated three deportation flights that returned more than 100 Iranian nationals to Tehran between September 2025 and January 2026.

Hundreds of ICE emails obtained by the National Iranian American Council through a FOIA lawsuit show the U.S. and Iran coordinated three deportation flights that returned more than 100 Iranian nationals to Tehran between September 2025 and January 2026.

Internal emails show Iranian officials sought last-minute changes to deportation lists, with one unnamed ICE official writing, "Per request from the Iran Embassy I added a few cases," and another noting Iran had asked to "amend the previous manifest."

Internal emails show Iranian officials sought last-minute changes to deportation lists, with one unnamed ICE official writing, "Per request from the Iran Embassy I added a few cases," and another noting Iran had asked to "amend the previous manifest."

ICE acting director Todd Lyons designated Iranian deportations a White House priority during the 12-day U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran in June 2025, even as officials noted Iran's airspace was closed and Iranians were fleeing the country.

ICE acting director Todd Lyons designated Iranian deportations a White House priority during the 12-day U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran in June 2025, even as officials noted Iran's airspace was closed and Iranians were fleeing the country.

The first deportation flight departed Sept. 29, 2025, stopping in Qatar where 54 Iranian nationals transferred to a Qatar Airways flight to Tehran. An ICE official later noted one person not on the approved manifest was boarded and ultimately deported.

The first deportation flight departed Sept. 29, 2025, stopping in Qatar where 54 Iranian nationals transferred to a Qatar Airways flight to Tehran. An ICE official later noted one person not on the approved manifest was boarded and ultimately deported.

Eleven Iranians in immigration detention filed sworn declarations in a Washington court in July alleging they were forced to meet Iranian government officials who possessed details of their asylum cases. DHS denied the allegations, calling them "FALSE."

Eleven Iranians in immigration detention filed sworn declarations in a Washington court in July alleging they were forced to meet Iranian government officials who possessed details of their asylum cases. DHS denied the allegations, calling them "FALSE."

Federal regulations prohibit U.S. authorities from disclosing information that could reveal a person's asylum application, though the government may coordinate with foreign governments on deportation logistics. ICE deported more than 100 Iranians across three flights.

Federal regulations prohibit U.S. authorities from disclosing information that could reveal a person's asylum application, though the government may coordinate with foreign governments on deportation logistics. ICE deported more than 100 Iranians across three flights.

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