Trump's last-minute tariff pause is a genuine win for both countries, pulling back a 50% levy on $28 billion worth of Canadian exports before it could do real damage. The potential revival of Keystone XL sweetens the deal, restoring an energy project that Biden killed and that Canada badly wanted. Carney's patient diplomacy paid off, and businesses that were bracing for a brutal midnight deadline can finally exhale.
Trump's "DEAL!" announcement comes loaded with a tell — "subject to the finalization of documents" — and his track record of declaring victory before anything is signed should give Canadians serious pause. Back in February 2025, Trump paused tariffs for 30 days promising a deal, and nothing materialized. Until signed documents are actually in hand, this looks far more like a political cliffhanger than a real agreement.
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