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“A collapse appears unlikely for now.”

"The collapse of the Iranian government remains unlikely in the near term."

It's "unclear if the demonstrations would unseat the leadership, pointing to the sheer depth and resilience of Iran's repressive apparatus."

"Our core assumption is that the regime will survive as long as its leaders and security forces retain the ability and willingness to suppress domestic unrest."

"It's going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall," including "defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic's political elite."

"What this heralds for the Islamic Republic in the near term is neither revolution nor collapse, but rather a slow-motion metastasis that is echoing across the political establishment, the economy, and society."

"Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed."

"If the regime does not fall this year, it may nonetheless enter a phase of irreversible weakening—one in which future shocks could prove far more difficult to absorb."

"The regime's chances of survival have reached a critical low, and its strategy of perseverance through coercion is being tested by a population that has largely lost faith in the state's ability to govern."

"The plain fact is that the Khamenei regime’s days are numbered."

Will the Current Iranian Government Collapse?

The U.S. military launched strikes against Iran for a fourth consecutive day on Tuesday and reimposed a naval blockade on vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports, which took effect at 2000 GMT, an hour after strikes began.

The U.S. military launched strikes against Iran for a fourth consecutive day on Tuesday and reimposed a naval blockade on vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports, which took effect at 2000 GMT, an hour after strikes began.

Trump threatened to strike Iran's power plants and bridges the following week unless Tehran returned to negotiations, telling Fox News: "Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. Next week comes the bridges."

Trump threatened to strike Iran's power plants and bridges the following week unless Tehran returned to negotiations, telling Fox News: "Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. Next week comes the bridges."

Trump reversed a plan to impose a 20% fee on cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, replacing it with trade and investment deals from Gulf states after receiving calls from regional leaders, including kings and emirs.

Trump reversed a plan to impose a 20% fee on cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, replacing it with trade and investment deals from Gulf states after receiving calls from regional leaders, including kings and emirs.

U.S. Central Command said its strikes targeted dozens of Iranian missile and drone sites, naval capabilities and coastal defense systems, deploying more than 20 warships and hundreds of military aircraft across the region.

U.S. Central Command said its strikes targeted dozens of Iranian missile and drone sites, naval capabilities and coastal defense systems, deploying more than 20 warships and hundreds of military aircraft across the region.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the reimposed blockade "has, in a way, dismantled the Islamabad memorandum" and that Iran currently holds no commitments under the agreement, including regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the reimposed blockade "has, in a way, dismantled the Islamabad memorandum" and that Iran currently holds no commitments under the agreement, including regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipping data showed only 11 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, nine of them linked to Iranian trade, while Goldman Sachs warned that "the next phase of Gulf flow recovery could be slower than the initial phase even after geopolitical de-escalation."

Shipping data showed only 11 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, nine of them linked to Iranian trade, while Goldman Sachs warned that "the next phase of Gulf flow recovery could be slower than the initial phase even after geopolitical de-escalation."

US reimposes its blockade on Iran after Tehran’s attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz

US reimposes its blockade on Iran after Tehran’s attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz

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US reimposes its blockade on Iran after Tehran’s attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz

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