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Will Traffic Through The Strait Of Hormuz Return To Normal Before Sept 2026

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Rubio Iran Will Not Be Allowed To Charge Tolls In Strait Of Hormuz Under Any Final Deal

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S.L. Kanthan

"No, we're not thinking about nuclear weapons."

"We have no intention of obtaining these weapons at all."

"Iran doesn't have nukes, isn't building nukes, and hasn't made the decision to build nukes."

"Iran doesn't have a bomb, and doesn't appear to be trying to make a bomb."

"They are definitely going for a nuclear weapon there is no question."

"They can have [a nuclear weapon], you know, in a matter of months, I would say."

Iran could produce a nuclear weapon "within a few months, less than a year."

Will Iran Possess a Nuclear Weapon?

Alex Vatanka

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Foreign Affairs

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Konrad Wolfenstein

“A collapse appears unlikely for now.”

"The collapse of the Iranian government remains unlikely in the near term."

"Our core assumption is that the regime will survive as long as its leaders and security forces retain the ability and willingness to suppress domestic unrest."

It's "unclear if the demonstrations would unseat the leadership, pointing to the sheer depth and resilience of Iran's repressive apparatus."

"It's going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall," including "defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic's political elite."

"What this heralds for the Islamic Republic in the near term is neither revolution nor collapse, but rather a slow-motion metastasis that is echoing across the political establishment, the economy, and society."

"Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed."

"If the regime does not fall this year, it may nonetheless enter a phase of irreversible weakening—one in which future shocks could prove far more difficult to absorb."

"The regime's chances of survival have reached a critical low, and its strategy of perseverance through coercion is being tested by a population that has largely lost faith in the state's ability to govern."

"The plain fact is that the Khamenei regime’s days are numbered."

Will the Current Iranian Government Collapse?

The U.N.'s International Maritime Organization (IMO) has launched a large-scale operation to evacuate more than 11,000 sailors stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/trump-iran-sign-historic-ceasefire-deal-at-g">following a memorandum of understanding signed by the U.S. and Iran</a> to end their conflict.

The U.N.'s International Maritime Organization (IMO) has launched a large-scale operation to evacuate more than 11,000 sailors stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, following a memorandum of understanding signed by the U.S. and Iran to end their conflict.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said the evacuation would be carried out in cooperation with Iran, Oman, the U.S. and other coastal states, adding that the agency had "secured the necessary safety guarantees" for safe navigation.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said the evacuation would be carried out in cooperation with Iran, Oman, the U.S. and other coastal states, adding that the agency had "secured the necessary safety guarantees" for safe navigation.

Oman's defense ministry said the existing Traffic Separation Scheme was "not safe for use at this time" and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/oman-opens-hormuz-corridor-after-usiran-deal">that two temporary routes to the north and south could be used</a>, with vessels contacted individually and assigned a transit day.

Oman's defense ministry said the existing Traffic Separation Scheme was "not safe for use at this time" and that two temporary routes to the north and south could be used, with vessels contacted individually and assigned a transit day.

Traffic through the strait on Monday reached its highest level since the war began, though it represented just over 40 percent of the normal peacetime level of around 120 vessels per day.

Traffic through the strait on Monday reached its highest level since the war began, though it represented just over 40 percent of the normal peacetime level of around 120 vessels per day.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/rubio-plans-middle-east-trip-amid-iran-deal-scrutiny">on a tour of Gulf allies including the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain</a>, said Iran would not be permitted to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, calling it "an international waterway" under existing international law.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on a tour of Gulf allies including the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain, said Iran would not be permitted to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, calling it "an international waterway" under existing international law.

Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, declared that the waterway "will never return" to its pre-war status. In response, President Trump warned that any tolls or charges on ships in the Strait of Hormuz would lead to an immediate halt in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, declared that the waterway "will never return" to its pre-war status. In response, President Trump warned that any tolls or charges on ships in the Strait of Hormuz would lead to an immediate halt in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

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Iran and Oman issued a joint statement asserting their sovereignty over the strait and said they would study the administration of the trade route and associated costs, while Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the waterway "will never return" to its pre-war status.

Iran and Oman issued a joint statement asserting their sovereignty over the strait and said they would study the administration of the trade route and associated costs, while Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the waterway "will never return" to its pre-war status.

The U.S.-Israel war on Iran left 11,000 sailors stranded for months in the Persian Gulf. Iran attacked civilian ships, killed 14 seafarers and choked off a waterway that carries a fifth of the world's oil. The peace deal is a step forward, but Iran's push to charge tolls on an international waterway shows that Tehran's maritime threats are serious.

The U.S.-Israel war on Iran left 11,000 sailors stranded for months in the Persian Gulf. Iran attacked civilian ships, killed 14 seafarers and choked off a waterway that carries a fifth of the world's oil. The peace deal is a step forward, but Iran's push to charge tolls on an international waterway shows that Tehran's maritime threats are serious.

U.S. Department of State

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was a direct response to being bombed, and Tehran is right to insist the waterway will never return to the pre-war status quo. The interim deal is fragile — Iran flatly denies agreeing to IAEA nuclear inspections despite U.S. claims otherwise. Rushing to reopen the strait without resolving core disputes on sovereignty and nuclear oversight sets up another crisis.

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was a direct response to being bombed, and Tehran is right to insist the waterway will never return to the pre-war status quo. The interim deal is fragile — Iran flatly denies agreeing to IAEA nuclear inspections despite U.S. claims otherwise. Rushing to reopen the strait without resolving core disputes on sovereignty and nuclear oversight sets up another crisis.

Michael McFaul

The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran reveal the complexities of international diplomacy regarding peace in the region. Iran's Foreign Ministry has challenged misleading claims about nuclear site inspections, asserting its autonomy and national interests. The U.S. demand for future inspections can be seen as an attempt to undermine Iran's sovereignty rather than a genuine move toward constructive dialogue. Iran is committed to defending its rights and seeking a fair resolution that respects its sovereignty while promoting peace and cooperation in the region.

The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran reveal the complexities of international diplomacy regarding peace in the region. Iran's Foreign Ministry has challenged misleading claims about nuclear site inspections, asserting its autonomy and national interests. The U.S. demand for future inspections can be seen as an attempt to undermine Iran's sovereignty rather than a genuine move toward constructive dialogue. Iran is committed to defending its rights and seeking a fair resolution that respects its sovereignty while promoting peace and cooperation in the region.

Al Arabiya English

There is a 50% chance that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal on any day before September 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 50% chance that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal on any day before September 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

The Iran War

The Israel-Iran Conflict

The US-Iran Conflict

Shady Alassar/Anadolu/Getty Images

Shady Alassar/Anadolu/Getty Images

UN Evacuates 11,000 Sailors Stranded in Hormuz

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World

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Ship travel

Iran

It is crucial to evacuate the 11,000 sailors stranded in the Persian Gulf since the onset of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. Maintaining traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a significant U.S. strategic interest. There will be no tolls, no insurance costs, and no other charges of any kind sought or received by Iran from ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. All negotiations will cease immediately if these terms are violated.

It is crucial to evacuate the 11,000 sailors stranded in the Persian Gulf since the onset of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. Maintaining traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a significant U.S. strategic interest. There will be no tolls, no insurance costs, and no other charges of any kind sought or received by Iran from ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. All negotiations will cease immediately if these terms are violated.

Donald Trump

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was in response to bombing, with Tehran asserting that it won't return to the pre-war status quo. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations illustrate the complexities of establishing peace in the region. Iran's Foreign Ministry has rejected misleading claims about nuclear inspections, viewing U.S. demands as undermining its sovereignty. Iran seeks a fair resolution that respects its autonomy while promoting regional peace and cooperation.

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was in response to bombing, with Tehran asserting that it won't return to the pre-war status quo. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations illustrate the complexities of establishing peace in the region. Iran's Foreign Ministry has rejected misleading claims about nuclear inspections, viewing U.S. demands as undermining its sovereignty. Iran seeks a fair resolution that respects its autonomy while promoting regional peace and cooperation.

UN Evacuates 11,000 Sailors Stranded in Hormuz

UN Evacuates 11,000 Sailors Stranded in Hormuz

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UN Evacuates 11,000 Sailors Stranded in Hormuz

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