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"Without a coordinated legal and infrastructural overhaul, and the political will to confront internal divisions, the EU’s ambition to fully sever its energy ties with Russia by the 2027 deadline will remain unattainable."

"If Europe wants to get invested in nuclear or renewable energies with the aim of being more self-reliant and energy secure, that will take time [beyond 2027]."

"The current design of the legal Russian gas phaseout regime contains several structural loopholes that risk prolonging Europe's dependence [beyond 2027] on Russian gas and undermining the effectiveness of the broader sanctions architecture."

"Slovakia and Hungary's infrastructure does not allow them to quickly [by end of 2027] transition to alternative suppliers."

"The 2027 deadlines are not a guarantee of a final break with Russian gas, but rather a political compromise that can still be diluted by exemptions, court proceedings and weak national-level enforcement."

"2027 is a key year for new LNG export capacity, especially from the US and Qatar. ... There is enough coming online to make up for a Russian shortfall, especially if Russian LNG can just flow into other markets like China."

"By 2027, it is possible to replace all these volumes - about 16 million tons, which are currently coming from Russia - with alternative suppliers."

"The European Union will be able to fully replace Russian liquefied natural gas imports with alternative supply from 2027 without major price shocks, thanks to booming projects in the United States and Qatar."

“We’ve made it: Europe is turning off the tap on Russian gas [by 2027], forever.”

"We are breaking away from detrimental reliance on Russian gas [by 2027] and taking a major step, in a spirit of solidarity and cooperation, towards an autonomous Energy Union."

Will the European Union Phase Out Russian LNG by 2027?

Roman Lavrynovych, 22, and Stanislav Carpiuc, 27, were found guilty at London's Old Bailey on Monday of conspiring to carry out arson attacks on properties linked to U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. A third defendant, Petro Pochynok, 35, was acquitted of the same charge.

Roman Lavrynovych, 22, and Stanislav Carpiuc, 27, were found guilty at London's Old Bailey on Monday of conspiring to carry out arson attacks on properties linked to U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. A third defendant, Petro Pochynok, 35, was acquitted of the same charge.

The attacks occurred over five days in May 2025, beginning with a Toyota RAV4 previously owned by Starmer set ablaze in Kentish Town on May 8, followed by fires at an Islington flat on May 11 and his former constituency home on May 12.

The attacks occurred over five days in May 2025, beginning with a Toyota RAV4 previously owned by Starmer set ablaze in Kentish Town on May 8, followed by fires at an Islington flat on May 11 and his former constituency home on May 12.

Lavrynovych was allegedly directed by an anonymous Russian-speaking Telegram contact called "El Money," who promised around £3,000 ($4000) in cryptocurrency for the attacks and demanded the fires be filmed and covered by news media.

Lavrynovych was allegedly directed by an anonymous Russian-speaking Telegram contact called "El Money," who promised around £3,000 ($4000) in cryptocurrency for the attacks and demanded the fires be filmed and covered by news media.

A BBC investigation identified El Money as Evgeny Lyukshin, a 23-year-old Russian diplomat trained in information warfare at Moscow's MGIMO academy, where the sanctioned pro-Kremlin media group Rybar operates a media school.

A BBC investigation identified El Money as Evgeny Lyukshin, a 23-year-old Russian diplomat trained in information warfare at Moscow's MGIMO academy, where the sanctioned pro-Kremlin media group Rybar operates a media school.

Counter Terrorism Policing London said the handler's intent was "to create fear, both for the victim and the prime minister," and spread uncertainty and unrest. Commander Helen Flanagan said investigators had found no evidence of a state-backed threat.

Counter Terrorism Policing London said the handler's intent was "to create fear, both for the victim and the prime minister," and spread uncertainty and unrest. Commander Helen Flanagan said investigators had found no evidence of a state-backed threat.

Russian operatives also created a fake online group called Direct Action, which the Financial Times linked to the pro-Kremlin hacktivist group NoName057(16). The group reportedly paid individuals to vandalize six London mosques and an Islamic school with anti-Muslim graffiti.

Russian operatives also created a fake online group called Direct Action, which the Financial Times linked to the pro-Kremlin hacktivist group NoName057(16). The group reportedly paid individuals to vandalize six London mosques and an Islamic school with anti-Muslim graffiti.

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Roman Lavrynovych, 22, and Stanislav Carpiuc, 27, were found guilty at London's Old Bailey of conspiracy to commit arson targeting property linked to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. A third defendant, Petro Pochynok, 35, was acquitted of the same charge.

Roman Lavrynovych, 22, and Stanislav Carpiuc, 27, were found guilty at London's Old Bailey of conspiracy to commit arson targeting property linked to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. A third defendant, Petro Pochynok, 35, was acquitted of the same charge.

Lavrynovych was directed by an anonymous Russian-speaking Telegram contact called "El Money," who promised around £3,000 in cryptocurrency for the attacks and demanded the fires be filmed and covered by news media.

Lavrynovych was directed by an anonymous Russian-speaking Telegram contact called "El Money," who promised around £3,000 in cryptocurrency for the attacks and demanded the fires be filmed and covered by news media.

Counter Terrorism Policing London said the handler's intent was "to create fear, both for the victim and the prime minister, and cause uncertainty, unrest, for the UK," though Commander Helen Flanagan said there was no evidence of a state-backed threat.

Counter Terrorism Policing London said the handler's intent was "to create fear, both for the victim and the prime minister, and cause uncertainty, unrest, for the UK," though Commander Helen Flanagan said there was no evidence of a state-backed threat.

Russian operatives also created a fake online group called Direct Action, which the Financial Times linked to pro-Kremlin hacktivist group NoName057(16). The group paid individuals to vandalize six London mosques and an Islamic school with anti-Muslim graffiti.

Russian operatives also created a fake online group called Direct Action, which the Financial Times linked to pro-Kremlin hacktivist group NoName057(16). The group paid individuals to vandalize six London mosques and an Islamic school with anti-Muslim graffiti.

A Ukrainian national and a Romanian national were found guilty at the Old Bailey of carrying out arson attacks on properties linked to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, acting on orders from a Russian-speaking Telegram contact called 'El Money.' The attacks were carefully planned to intimidate Starmer and spread fear across the country. This is a direct assault on democratic leadership, and the convictions prove the justice system can hold bad actors accountable.

A Ukrainian national and a Romanian national were found guilty at the Old Bailey of carrying out arson attacks on properties linked to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, acting on orders from a Russian-speaking Telegram contact called 'El Money.' The attacks were carefully planned to intimidate Starmer and spread fear across the country. This is a direct assault on democratic leadership, and the convictions prove the justice system can hold bad actors accountable.

The arson attacks on Starmer's properties weren't random crime — they were part of a deliberate Russian sabotage campaign run through fake far-right groups, Telegram recruitment and cryptocurrency payments. Evidence points to a young Russian diplomat trained in information warfare as the handler behind the attacks. Russia is actively stoking division and fear on British streets, and treating this as ordinary criminality dangerously understates the threat.

The arson attacks on Starmer's properties weren't random crime — they were part of a deliberate Russian sabotage campaign run through fake far-right groups, Telegram recruitment and cryptocurrency payments. Evidence points to a young Russian diplomat trained in information warfare as the handler behind the attacks. Russia is actively stoking division and fear on British streets, and treating this as ordinary criminality dangerously understates the threat.

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The rush to frame the Starmer arson case as another chapter in a Russian sabotage campaign follows a familiar pattern in Western politics. Allegations of Kremlin involvement generate headlines long before the public sees the full evidence, while alternative explanations receive far less scrutiny. The case reinforces a climate in which Russia is often treated as the default culprit, helping sustain a broader atmosphere of confrontation and suspicion.

The rush to frame the Starmer arson case as another chapter in a Russian sabotage campaign follows a familiar pattern in Western politics. Allegations of Kremlin involvement generate headlines long before the public sees the full evidence, while alternative explanations receive far less scrutiny. The case reinforces a climate in which Russia is often treated as the default culprit, helping sustain a broader atmosphere of confrontation and suspicion.

The Starmer arson plot highlights a growing Russian-linked model of disruption that relies on proxies, deniability and low-cost recruitment rather than direct confrontation. A handful of recruits and encrypted messaging apps were enough to target the home of a sitting prime minister. The convictions may have closed one case, but they also exposed how easily hostile actors can project intimidation and instability deep inside Western democracies.

The Starmer arson plot highlights a growing Russian-linked model of disruption that relies on proxies, deniability and low-cost recruitment rather than direct confrontation. A handful of recruits and encrypted messaging apps were enough to target the home of a sitting prime minister. The convictions may have closed one case, but they also exposed how easily hostile actors can project intimidation and instability deep inside Western democracies.

There is a 5% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 5% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Two Guilty in Arson Plot Against UK PM Starmer

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