Project Freedom is working. Though hundreds of ships from 87 countries are stuck in the Persian Gulf, and Iran is recklessly targeting neutral nations' cargo ships — including a South Korean carrier and a UAE oil tanker — Iran's military has been dramatically degraded,. whileMeanwhile the U.S. is swiftly eliminating the small boats Tehran is deploying to harass trapped commercial vessels.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly called alleged IRGC strikes on the UAE "completely irresponsible" and "madness," warning of "potentially irreversible consequences." This suggests that the strikes occurred without government coordination, highlighting tension with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Any disconnect between civilian officials and security forces could affect regional stability and ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Donald Trump has constrained his strategic options: limited strikes have not compelled Iranian capitulation, while a blockade entails significant economic and security risks. Statements from Scott Bessent have presented shifting timelines regarding Iran's oil sector. Losses in the Strait and policy confusion risk escalation, underscoring the need for a pivot from maximalist demands toward negotiations to avoid a broader, prolonged conflict.