Axios

Imf Iran Inflation Economy

Daily Sabah

IMF lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% on Mideast war risks

The Washington Examiner

IMF warns of global recession risk if Iran war escalates

Al-Monitor

IMF cuts 2026 global growth forecast on Mideast war

DAWN

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World Economic Outlook April 2026

Newsmax

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The New York Times

Iran War Imf Economic Growth.Html

Guardian

Iran war escalation could trigger global recession, IMF warns

Common Dreams

'A Very Dark Picture': IMF Warns Trump's Iran War Could Unleash Global Recession

Townhall

Here's How Much the US Blockade is Costing Iran

Hudson Institute

Seven Myths About the Iran War

Metaculus

US Economic Recession Starts in Listed Year?

The Vanguard Group

Bloomberg

Scott Anderson

U. S. Chamber of Commerce

Goldman Sachs

Investopedia

Polymarket

Brian Moynihan

J.P. Morgan

Torsten Slok

Edward Yardeni

The Guardian

The Street

Deloitte

Greg Rosalsky

Bankrate

Terry Lane

Diccon Hyatt

Frank Gargano

"Most economists expect the U.S. economy to grow in 2026, thanks to the effects of the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Act and increased AI spending. "

"The probability of a recession in the next 12 months has fallen from 30% to 20%."

“Our odds of a severe correction or a bear market, triggered by either recession fears or an actual recession, remain low at 20%.”

"There is a 25% chance of a US recession happening by the end of 2026."

"Economists say the U.S. economy has a solid chance of sidestepping a recession again in 2026 — at least for now. "

"[J.P. Morgan] estimate there is a 35% chance America and the world will enter a recession in 2026."

"Most forecasters believe that, despite some headwinds, the odds are that the economy will not enter a recession this year."

The world economy is expected to avoid a downturn in 2026, despite the rise in trade barriers in 2025.

“It will take more time for businesses to feel certain that they will not be wrong-footed by shifting trade and immigration policies and other threats before they resume hiring.”

Jeff Cox

"While economists may not see a recession coming in 2026, the public isn’t so sure."

"Bankers fear that a recession will likely happen in both the U.S. and global economies."

Will the US Enter a Recession by 2026?

The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, down from 3.3% projected in January and below the 3.4% expansion recorded in 2025. The fund said the Middle East conflict halted what had been building economic momentum.

The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, down from 3.3% projected in January and below the 3.4% expansion recorded in 2025. The fund said the Middle East conflict halted what had been building economic momentum.

The IMF raised its 2026 global inflation forecast to 4.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from its January estimate, citing surging oil, gas and fertilizer <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/opec-boosts-output-as-oil-hits-amid-hormuz-crisis">prices driven by Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz</a> and a U.S. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/us-navy-iran-blockade-live-oil-hits-">naval blockade ordered by President Trump</a>.

The IMF raised its 2026 global inflation forecast to 4.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from its January estimate, citing surging oil, gas and fertilizer prices driven by Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S. naval blockade ordered by President Trump.

Under its most severe economic outlook, the IMF predicted prolonged disruption and oil above $110 per barrel into 2027, with global growth could falling to 2% and inflation exceeding 6%, a threshold the fund described as a "close call for a global recession."

Under its most severe economic outlook, the IMF predicted prolonged disruption and oil above $110 per barrel into 2027, with global growth could falling to 2% and inflation exceeding 6%, a threshold the fund described as a "close call for a global recession."

The IMF projected U.S. growth at 2.3% for 2026, while Euro area growth was revised down 0.2% points to 1.1%, with the U.K. facing the steepest G7 downgrade, cut 0.5% to 0.8%.

The IMF projected U.S. growth at 2.3% for 2026, while Euro area growth was revised down 0.2% points to 1.1%, with the U.K. facing the steepest G7 downgrade, cut 0.5% to 0.8%.

The IMF warned that emerging market and developing economies would bear nearly twice the economic impact of advanced economies. Growth projections for the Middle East and central Asia were cut by roughly half to 1.9%, with GDP declines forecast for Iran, Qatar and Iraq in 2026.

The IMF warned that emerging market and developing economies would bear nearly twice the economic impact of advanced economies. Growth projections for the Middle East and central Asia were cut by roughly half to 1.9%, with GDP declines forecast for Iran, Qatar and Iraq in 2026.

The IMF cautioned that if inflation expectations become unanchored, central banks may need to raise interest rates despite ongoing negative supply shocks.

The IMF cautioned that if inflation expectations become unanchored, central banks may need to raise interest rates despite ongoing negative supply shocks.

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The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, down from 3.3% projected in January and below the 3.4% expansion recorded in 2025. The fund said the Middle East conflict, which began Feb. 28 with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, halted what had been building economic momentum.

The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, down from 3.3% projected in January and below the 3.4% expansion recorded in 2025. The fund said the Middle East conflict, which began Feb. 28 with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, halted what had been building economic momentum.

The IMF raised its 2026 global inflation forecast to 4.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from its January estimate, citing surging oil, gas and fertilizer prices driven by Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S. naval blockade ordered by President Trump.

The IMF outlined three conflict scenarios in its World Economic Outlook. Under the most severe, involving prolonged disruption and oil above $110 per barrel into 2027, global growth could fall to 2% and inflation could exceed 6%, a threshold the fund described as a "close call for a global recession."

The IMF outlined three conflict scenarios in its World Economic Outlook. Under the most severe, involving prolonged disruption and oil above $110 per barrel into 2027, global growth could fall to 2% and inflation could exceed 6%, a threshold the fund described as a "close call for a global recession."

The IMF projected U.S. growth at 2.3% for 2026, the strongest among major advanced economies, partly reflecting its status as a net energy exporter. Euro area growth was revised down 0.2 percentage points to 1.1%, while the U.K. faced the steepest G7 downgrade, cut 0.5 percentage points to 0.8%.

The IMF projected U.S. growth at 2.3% for 2026, the strongest among major advanced economies, partly reflecting its status as a net energy exporter. Euro area growth was revised down 0.2 percentage points to 1.1%, while the U.K. faced the steepest G7 downgrade, cut 0.5 percentage points to 0.8%.

The IMF cautioned that if inflation expectations become unanchored, central banks may need to raise interest rates despite ongoing negative supply shocks. The fund also noted that the war represents a larger risk to the global economy than the disruptions caused by U.S. tariff policies introduced a year prior.

The IMF cautioned that if inflation expectations become unanchored, central banks may need to raise interest rates despite ongoing negative supply shocks. The fund also noted that the war represents a larger risk to the global economy than the disruptions caused by U.S. tariff policies introduced a year prior.

The IMF's slashed growth forecast makes clear that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is dragging the entire global economy toward recession. Surging oil and food prices are hammering the world's poorest nations hardest, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a full-blown energy crisis. Reckless military adventurism has real economic costs — and everyday people worldwide are footing the bill.

The IMF's slashed growth forecast makes clear that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is dragging the entire global economy toward recession. Surging oil and food prices are hammering the world's poorest nations hardest, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a full-blown energy crisis. Reckless military adventurism has real economic costs — and everyday people worldwide are footing the bill.

The blockade strangling Iran's economy at $400 million a day is exactly the decisive pressure needed to eliminate a nuclear threat that years of diplomatic appeasement only made worse. The IMF's gloomy forecast ignores that restraint and sanctions relief under Biden financed the very missile programs and proxy networks that destabilized the region. Confronting Iran now prevents a far costlier crisis later.

The blockade strangling Iran's economy at $400 million a day is exactly the decisive pressure needed to eliminate a nuclear threat that years of diplomatic appeasement only made worse. The IMF's gloomy forecast ignores that restraint and sanctions relief under Biden financed the very missile programs and proxy networks that destabilized the region. Confronting Iran now prevents a far costlier crisis later.

The Israel-Iran Conflict

The US-Iran Conflict