Snapshot 6:Mon, Mar 30, 2026 2:37:25 PM GMT last edited by Kevin

Vance Wins CPAC 2028 Straw Poll Again, Rubio Moves to 35%

Vance Wins CPAC 2028 Straw Poll Again;, Rubio SurgesMoves to 35%

Published 1 day ago

Vance Wins CPAC 2028 Straw Poll Again, Rubio Moves to 35%

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Above: U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 19. Image credit: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Rubio's surge from 3% to 35% at CPAC isn't just a number, it's a signal that the 2028 race now has a real second contender. As Secretary of State, Rubio has championed American values abroad without the baggage of being seen as soft on military action, particularly with Iran, giving him an edge Vance simply can't match. Evangelicals are locking in, and if Trump weighs in, this race flips fast.

The Washington Examiner

David Brody on X

Greta Van Susteren on X

Vance’s win masks deeper fissures as his support slipped and Rubio surged, while the Iran war is splitting MAGA between hawks and “America First” skeptics. From Bannon to Gaetz, dissent is growing louder, not disappearing. CPAC’s own stage showed a movement wrestling with its identity, marked by internal conflict and mounting frustration, not unity, heading into 2028.

The New York Times Guardian

Brandon Straka on X

Vance still won CPAC, and the poll's other findings make clear the MAGA base is firmly behind the Iran war, with 89% backing military force against the Iranian regime. The so-called "fissures" are overblown as antiwar voices like Bannon collapsed from 12% to near zero in the straw poll. CPAC 2026 showed a movement that's debating tactics, not fracturing at its core, with a strong bench of 2028 options.

The Washington Times New York Post

Eric Daugherty on X

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 60% chance that the United States and Iran will sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.