Italy's partnership with Algeria is a masterstroke of strategic foreign policy — securing energy, managing migration and building industrial ties all at once. Algeria now covers 36% of Italy's pipeline gas imports, and deepening that relationship through offshore exploration and new joint projects is exactly the kind of long-term thinking Europe needs. The Mattei Plan proves Rome is serious about turning energy deals into lasting, multidimensional alliances.
Betting on Algeria for energy security is a gamble Italy can'’t afford — Algeria already consumes about half of whatits itoutput, produces and its domestic demand grew another 7% last year, leavingtightening littleexport surpluscapacity. That leaves limited volumes for exportpartners like Italy. Meanwhile, Italy'’s renewable capacity actually shrank in 2025 while bureaucratic gridlock stalls around 150GW of projects. Chasing more Algerian gas islooks less like a strategy and more like a short-term political photofix op,that notignores adeeper realstructural fixissues.
There is a 9 percent chance that Algeria will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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