Italy's partnership with Algeria is a masterstroke of strategic foreign policy — securing energy, managing migration and building industrial ties all at once. Algeria now covers 36% of Italy's pipeline gas imports, and deepening that relationship through offshore exploration and new joint projects is exactly the kind of long-term thinking Europe needs. The Mattei Plan proves that Rome is serious about turning energy deals into lasting, multidimensional alliances.
Betting on Algeria for energy security is a gamble Italy can't afford — Algeria already consumes about half of its output, and demand grew another 7% last year, tightening export capacity. That leaves limited volumes for partners like Italy. Meanwhile, Italy’s renewable capacity shrank in 2025 while gridlock stalls around 150 gigawatts of projects. Chasing more Algerian gas looks less like a strategy and more like a short-term political fix that ignores deeper structural issues.
There is a 9% chance that Algeria will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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