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“A collapse appears unlikely for now.”

"The collapse of the Iranian government remains unlikely in the near term."

"Our core assumption is that the regime will survive as long as its leaders and security forces retain the ability and willingness to suppress domestic unrest."

It's "unclear if the demonstrations would unseat the leadership, pointing to the sheer depth and resilience of Iran's repressive apparatus."

"It's going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall," including "defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic's political elite."

"What this heralds for the Islamic Republic in the near term is neither revolution nor collapse, but rather a slow-motion metastasis that is echoing across the political establishment, the economy, and society."

"Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed."

"If the regime does not fall this year, it may nonetheless enter a phase of irreversible weakening—one in which future shocks could prove far more difficult to absorb."

"The regime's chances of survival have reached a critical low, and its strategy of perseverance through coercion is being tested by a population that has largely lost faith in the state's ability to govern."

"The plain fact is that the Khamenei regime’s days are numbered."

Will the Current Iranian Government Collapse?

Mojtaba Khamenei was named Iran's new supreme leader on March 8, succeeding his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in strikes on February 28. Since his appointment, Mojtaba has not appeared on state television, and his first message was read aloud by a presenter.

Mojtaba Khamenei was named Iran's new supreme leader on March 8, succeeding his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in strikes on February 28. Since his appointment, Mojtaba has not appeared on state television, and his first message was read aloud by a presenter.

A message attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei stated that Iran "will not refrain from avenging the blood of its martyrs" and warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should continue. The message also indicated Iran could open "other fronts if necessary."

A message attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei stated that Iran "will not refrain from avenging the blood of its martyrs" and warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should continue. The message also indicated Iran could open "other fronts if necessary."

Mojtaba Khamenei demanded the immediate closure of all US military bases in the Middle East, warning that failure to comply would prompt direct attacks. He stated that Iran would "inevitably continue" with attacks on US bases in the region.

Mojtaba Khamenei demanded the immediate closure of all US military bases in the Middle East, warning that failure to comply would prompt direct attacks. He stated that Iran would "inevitably continue" with attacks on US bases in the region.

The statement from Mojtaba Khamenei thanked Yemen's Houthis and Hezbollah in Lebanon for "defending the oppressed people of Gaza" and "coming to the aid of the Islamic Republic." He also thanked the Iraqi resistance for their "courage."

The statement from Mojtaba Khamenei thanked Yemen's Houthis and Hezbollah in Lebanon for "defending the oppressed people of Gaza" and "coming to the aid of the Islamic Republic." He also thanked the Iraqi resistance for their "courage."

Mojtaba Khamenei referenced the deadly strike in Minab, where Iranian authorities say 168 people were killed, including around 110 children. He vowed that Iran would not hesitate to "avenge the blood of Iranians" killed during the conflict.

Mojtaba Khamenei referenced the deadly strike in Minab, where Iranian authorities say 168 people were killed, including around 110 children. He vowed that Iran would not hesitate to "avenge the blood of Iranians" killed during the conflict.

The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy pledged to inflict the "harshest blows" on Iran's enemies by keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed his wife and mother were also killed in the strikes.

The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy pledged to inflict the "harshest blows" on Iran's enemies by keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed his wife and mother were also killed in the strikes.

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