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&gt; Explosion hit US Embassy in Oslo early March 8 (~1 AM)
&gt; Powerful IED targeted embassy entrance; minor structural damage, no injuries
&gt; Norwegian police arrested three brothers of Iraqi origin on Marc...

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“A collapse appears unlikely for now.”

"The collapse of the Iranian government remains unlikely in the near term."

"Our core assumption is that the regime will survive as long as its leaders and security forces retain the ability and willingness to suppress domestic unrest."

It's "unclear if the demonstrations would unseat the leadership, pointing to the sheer depth and resilience of Iran's repressive apparatus."

"It's going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall," including "defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic's political elite."

"What this heralds for the Islamic Republic in the near term is neither revolution nor collapse, but rather a slow-motion metastasis that is echoing across the political establishment, the economy, and society."

"Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed."

"If the regime does not fall this year, it may nonetheless enter a phase of irreversible weakening—one in which future shocks could prove far more difficult to absorb."

"The regime's chances of survival have reached a critical low, and its strategy of perseverance through coercion is being tested by a population that has largely lost faith in the state's ability to govern."

"The plain fact is that the Khamenei regime’s days are numbered."

Will the Current Iranian Government Collapse?

Norwegian police arrested three brothers on Wednesday afternoon in Oslo on suspicion of a terrorist bombing at the US embassy. The suspects are Norwegian citizens of Iraqi origin in their 20s who were not previously known to police.

Norwegian police arrested three brothers on Wednesday afternoon in Oslo on suspicion of a terrorist bombing at the US embassy. The suspects are Norwegian citizens of Iraqi origin in their 20s who were not previously known to police.

The explosion occurred around 1 a.m. local time on Sunday at the entrance to the embassy's consular section, causing minor damage but no injuries. Police believe one brother placed the bomb while the other two were complicit in the act.

The explosion occurred around 1 a.m. local time on Sunday at the entrance to the embassy's consular section, causing minor damage but no injuries. Police believe one brother placed the bomb while the other two were complicit in the act.

Police prosecutor Christian Hatlo stated investigators are examining whether the attack was ordered by a government entity, given the target and current security situation. Authorities are also not ruling out links to criminal networks.

Police prosecutor Christian Hatlo stated investigators are examining whether the attack was ordered by a government entity, given the target and current security situation. Authorities are also not ruling out links to criminal networks.

A video uploaded to the embassy's Google Maps page around the time of the blast appeared to show Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The person who posted it wrote in Persian "God is great. We are victorious," according to NRK.

A video uploaded to the embassy's Google Maps page around the time of the blast appeared to show Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The person who posted it wrote in Persian "God is great. We are victorious," according to NRK.

Norway's security service PST said last month that Iran could rely on proxy actors, including criminal networks, to commit acts. Iran's ambassador to Norway denied any involvement, saying it was unacceptable that Iran was being singled out.

Norway's security service PST said last month that Iran could rely on proxy actors, including criminal networks, to commit acts. Iran's ambassador to Norway denied any involvement, saying it was unacceptable that Iran was being singled out.

US embassies have been placed on high alert in the Middle East due to strikes on Iran. Norway's Justice Minister Astri Aas-Hansen described the arrests as a breakthrough in the case.

US embassies have been placed on high alert in the Middle East due to strikes on Iran. Norway's Justice Minister Astri Aas-Hansen described the arrests as a breakthrough in the case.

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