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The sinking of an Iranian warship 4,000 miles from Tehran in neutral waters near Sri Lanka marks a fundamental shift in naval warfare. This wasn't a regional skirmish in the Gulf but a global hunt showing no Iranian vessel is safe anywhere on earth once targeted. Markets still pricing a contained conflict are missing the reality that the Indian Ocean has become an active battlefield.
There's a 45% chance that the United States and Iran will sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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