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Japan to Deploy Missiles on Island Near Taiwan by 2031

Japan to Deploy Missiles on Island Near Taiwan by 20302031

Japan to Deploy Missiles on Island Near Taiwan by 2031
Above: A general view of Yonaguni Island on Aug. 18, 2022. Image credit: Philip Fong/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Deploying surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni Island by 2031 representsis a necessary defensive measure as China intensifies attempts to change the status quo by force in the East and South China Seas. With Beijing refusing to rule out taking Taiwan by force and engaging in coercive behavior, strengthening air defenses on islands near potential flashpoints protects Japanese territory and regional stability.

Japan's accelerated missile deployment marks a dangerous breakaway from its pacifist constitution and exposes military expansion ambitions that risk repeating World War II mistakes. The upgraded Type 12 missiles covering parts of the Chinese mainland will only become a security burden for Japan itself, increasing the risk of becoming a target while failing to earn trust from Asian neighbors.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 51% chance that the People's Republic of China will control at least half of Taiwan before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0