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Will China Invade Taiwan?

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Claims

Last Updated 3 days ago

Minghao Zhao"Beijing's main goal is to deter Taiwan independence, rather than realize military reunification."

Tsai Ing-wen"My thought is that perhaps this is not a time for [China] to consider a major invasion of Taiwan."

Mark Milley"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

Philip Davidson“Taiwan is clearly one of [China's] ambitions before that and I think the threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years.”Mar 10, 2021

Taipei Times

Bates Gill"[T]he likelihood of more PRC threats and shows of force against Taiwan will continue to increase over the coming years."

Mike Minihan“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight [against Chinese inavsion of Taiwan] in 2025.”

FischerKing"I can predict with certainty that China has no intention of invading Taiwan for the foreseeable future."Nov 08, 2025

X

Csis"Such a framing offers an implicit deadline for PRC absorption of Taiwan by 2049."Jul 03, 2024

Interpret

CounterPoint Global"China has zero interest to invade Taiwan and has never threatened to invade Taiwan."Nov 08, 2025

X

Lyle Goldstein"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

Mike Minihan"Xi's team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for [a] 2025 [invasion of Taiwan]."

John Mearsheimer"I don't think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan any time soon."

Bonnie S. GlaserA Chinese takeover of Taiwan "is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

Marco Rubio"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

Global Guardian"Global Guardian thinks that the window for conflict or a blockade is now open, with that window most likely remaining open between 2024 and 2028."Jan 03, 2025

Globalguardian

Jessica Chen Weiss"Fears that China will soon invade Taiwan are overblown."Mar 21, 2023

Foreign Affairs

Metaculus"There is a 26% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2030."

Joseph Wu"2027 is a year we need to watch out."Jan 19, 2023

Taiwan

Kerry Brown"While the dial is still some way from there being a real Taiwan crisis by 2027, it is edging a little bit closer as time goes on."Feb 26, 2025

Brookings