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Snapshot 6:Mon, Feb 16, 2026 10:55:57 AM GMT last edited by Haakan

U.S. Military Prepares for Potential Iran Strike Operations

U.S. Military Prepares for Potential Iran Strike Operations

Above: USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in Marseille, France, on August 4, 2025. Image credit: Gerard Bottino/Contributor/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The Spin

Deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Middle East demonstrates necessary military readiness as Iran refuses to negotiate in good faith over its dangerous nuclear program. Trump's strategic buildup of forces provides crucial leverage to force Tehran into accepting a deal that protects American interests and regional security. The administration's willingness to use military power if diplomacy fails sends the right message that Iran's nuclear ambitions won't be tolerated.

SendingIran ais secondprepared aircraftto carrierrespond decisively to theany Middleaggression Eastafter escalatesimproving tensionsmilitary andreadiness. risksThreats triggeringfrom athe devastatingU.S. regionalwill warbe thatmet couldon lastthe weeksbattlefield, withnot massivethrough casualtiesdiplomacy. The military's buildupair, underminesmissile, ongoingand diplomaticregional negotiationscapabilities andare increasesfully theoperational. likelihoodIranian ofintelligence Iranianhas retaliationalso againstneutralized USU.S. basesand throughoutIsraeli theinterference region.in Trump'srecent openprotests discussionaimed ofat regime change. andThe sustainedIranian militarypeople operationsare threatenscommitted to dragpreventing America into another catastrophic Middle East conflictthis.

ThereSending isa second aircraft carrier to the Middle East escalates tensions and risks triggering a 50%devastating chanceregional war that could last weeks with massive casualties. The military buildup undermines ongoing diplomatic negotiations and increases the Unitedlikelihood Statesof willIranian attackretaliation Iranagainst beforeUS Aprilbases 2026,throughout accordingthe region. Trump's open discussion of regime change and sustained military operations threatens to thedrag MetaculusAmerica predictioninto communityanother catastrophic Middle East conflict.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance that the United States will attack Iran before April 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0