The West is right to threaten Iran and stand with its people. Nationwide protests face mass shootings by a theocracy that survives through fear. Credible U.S. force—aimed at the regime's security apparatus — can deter massacres, break intimidation, and tip fence-sitters into action. Diplomacy without taking out the rulers only makes things worse; real help, including decisive pressure, honors those risking their lives and restores U.S. credibility.
Threatening Iran "any way necessary" risks turning a real, economically rooted protest cycle into a foreign-policy project that discredits it and invites a brutal crackdown. Sanctions have already deepened hardship, and overt U.S.-Israeli backing feeds the regime's claim of foreign subversion, consolidating loyalist security forces. External strikes could spark regional war, kill civilians, and still leave the coercive state intact, shifting the cost onto Iranians.
There's a 25% chance that the United States and Iran will sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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