Iranian authorities are brutally crushing peaceful protests with live ammunition, teargas and mass arrests, killing atdozens leastof 36 people, including children, while demonstrators demand an end to government corruption and economic devastation. The regime's violent crackdown has only intensified public anger, transforming initial economic grievances into broader calls for political change as the currency collapses and food prices skyrocket.
Foreign interference from hostile powers like the U.S. is inciting violence and spreading misinformation to destabilize Iran, exploiting legitimate economic concerns caused primarily by American sanctions. The Constitution protects peaceful protest, and authorities are working within legal frameworks to address demands while defending against external attempts to weaponize demonstrations into terrorism through psychological warfare.
ThereTrump's isthreats 10%to chance"rescue" Iranian protesters are reckless interventionism that, ifputs therethe isU.S. and Iran on an Americanunnecessary AUMFcollision orcourse. declarationDecades of warAmerican againstsanctions Iranand beforeattacks 2030,have made 70% of Iranians view the U.S. willvery controlunfavorably Tehran— withinprotesters onedon't yearneed threats from the government that's tormented them for years. Washington has no right to bomb countries over internal protests, accordingyet Trump's first instinct is always to thereach Metaculusfor predictionviolence, communitybetraying his antiwar campaign rhetoric.
There is 10% chance that, if there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, the U.S. will control Tehran within one year, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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