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China launches live-fire drills around Taiwan simulating blockade of major ports

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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Donald Trump

Tsai Ing-wen

CSIS

Marco Rubio

Ian Bremmer

Michael McCaul

Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan

Bonnie S. Glaser

Mark Milley

Charles Glaser

Denny Roy

Mike Studeman

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Henry Olsen

Lyle Goldstein

Bates Gill

Minghao Zhao

Joseph Wu

Jessica Chen Weiss

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CounterPoint Global

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Adithia Kusno

Palmer Luckey

Ely Ratner

Philip Davidson

"China has zero interest to invade Taiwan and has never threatened to invade Taiwan."

“I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that [invade Taiwan].”

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

a P.L.A. takeover of Taiwan is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"I wouldn't say war is likely in the next few years, but I wouldn't say it's unlikely over the next couple of decades."

"I think they (the Chinese) have intention, but absolutely I think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"Global Guardian thinks that the window for conflict or a blockade is now open, with that window most likely remaining open between 2024 and 2028."

"The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan."

“Taiwan is clearly one of [China's] ambitions before that and I think the threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years.”

Will China Invade Taiwan by 2030?

Lloyd Austin

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

China launched military drills named Justice Mission 2025 around Taiwan on Monday, deploying army, navy, air force and rocket forces to simulate blockades of major ports and attacks on maritime targets. The exercises involve live-fire drills scheduled for Tuesday from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time in five zones surrounding Taiwan.

China launched military drills named Justice Mission 2025 around Taiwan on Monday, deploying army, navy, air force and rocket forces to simulate blockades of major ports and attacks on maritime targets. The exercises involve live-fire drills scheduled for Tuesday from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time in five zones surrounding Taiwan.

The drills began 11 days after the United States approved $11.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, the largest weapons package ever for the island. China's defense ministry protested the sale and warned the military would take forceful measures in response.

The drills began 11 days after the United States approved $11.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, the largest weapons package ever for the island. China's defense ministry protested the sale and warned the military would take forceful measures in response.

A spokesperson for China's Eastern Theater Command stated the exercises serve as a stern warning to Taiwan independence separatist forces and external interference forces. Taiwan's defense ministry condemned the drills as irrational provocations and deployed forces to conduct counter combat-readiness exercises.

A spokesperson for China's Eastern Theater Command stated the exercises serve as a stern warning to Taiwan independence separatist forces and external interference forces. Taiwan's defense ministry condemned the drills as irrational provocations and deployed forces to conduct counter combat-readiness exercises.

The military exercises mark China's sixth major round of war games around Taiwan since 2022, following then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island. This is the first time China has publicly stated that drills around Taiwan aim to deter outside military intervention.

The military exercises mark China's sixth major round of war games around Taiwan since 2022, following then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island. This is the first time China has publicly stated that drills around Taiwan aim to deter outside military intervention.

The drills follow remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Japan could become militarily involved if China attacked Taiwan. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te stated in a Sunday interview that Taiwan must keep raising the difficulty so China can never meet the standard for invasion.

The drills follow remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Japan could become militarily involved if China attacked Taiwan. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te stated in a Sunday interview that Taiwan must keep raising the difficulty so China can never meet the standard for invasion.

Taiwan's coast guard reported the drill scope poses a significant threat to navigational safety in Taiwan's waters and operational rights of fishermen. Taiwan's stock markets were largely unaffected by the drills, rising 0.3% to a record high in morning trading on Monday.

Taiwan's coast guard reported the drill scope poses a significant threat to navigational safety in Taiwan's waters and operational rights of fishermen. Taiwan's stock markets were largely unaffected by the drills, rising 0.3% to a record high in morning trading on Monday.

China Launches Military Drills Around Taiwan After US Arms Sale

China Launches Military Drills Around Taiwan After US Arms Sale

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China Launches Military Drills Around Taiwan After US Arms Sale

China Launches Military Drills Around Taiwan After US Arms Sale

The Controversies

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Trump

Milley

Glaser

Glaser

Ratner

Goldstein

Rubio

Guardian

Luckey

Davidson

Thornburg

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Rudd

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Friedman

III

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