China launches live-fire drills around Taiwan simulating blockade of major ports
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China Launches Large-Scale Military Drills Around Taiwan
Are China's drills around Taiwan aggressive intimidation, or justified defense against U.S. interference?
Above: A Chinese military helicopter flies past Pingtan island, on Aug. 4, 2022. Image credit: Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
China's military drills around Taiwan are unilateral provocation that destabilizes the entire region and undermines self-determination. These irresponsible actions threaten peace and must stop immediately. Taiwan's people, democratic values and sovereignty deserve protection from Beijing's coercive, aggressive intimidation tactics.
Pro-China narrative
The military exercises serve as legitimate defense of national sovereignty against dangerous external interference. US arms sales totaling $11.1 billion directly violate the one-China policy and embolden separatist forces. These drills demonstrate justified resolve to prevent Taiwan from becoming a flashpoint through American provocation.
Narrative C
Beijing's latest exercises were not directed at Taipei, but at deterring external military intervention: for the first time, PLA doctrine explicitly signals Japan. The drills will end routinely and the strategic shift will endure, altering Indo-Pacific calculations permanently after decades of strategic ambiguity collapse.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 10% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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CRITICAL
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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0