Blocking the EU–Mercosur agreement undermines Europe’s global credibility and risks pushing Latin American economies further into China’s orbit at a moment of intensifying geopolitical competition. After 25 years of negotiations, abandoning a deal covering 780 million people would expose the EU’s inability to act decisively on trade, especially as U.S. tariffs harden access to American markets, leaving the bloc without leverage or alternatives when strategic options beyond both Beijing and Washington are urgently needed.
European farmers oppose the EU–Mercosur deal because it would flood EU markets with cheaper imports produced under lower standards, undercutting prices and livelihoods. The same logic entrenches a neocolonial model abroad, locking Latin America into raw-material exports while importing European goods and banned pesticides. The deal risks accelerating Amazon deforestation, destroying indigenous lands and violating rights, as Europe greenwashes its economy by shifting environmental costs to the Global South.
There is a 96% chance that the EU will rank above the U.S. and China every year in the Climate Change Performance Index until 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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