US Announces $11.1B Arms Package to Taiwan, Largest Ever

Does the $11.1B Taiwan arms deal strengthen deterrence against China, or dangerously escalate regional tensions?
US Announces $11.1B Arms Package to Taiwan, Largest Ever
Above: A live-fire test of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) at the Jiupeng base, on May 12. Image credit: Taiwan's Military/Handout/Anadolu/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This massive $11.1 billion arms package proves America stands firmly with Taiwan against Chinese aggression and demonstrates unwavering commitment to the island's self-defense under the Taiwan Relations Act. The sale enhances Taiwan's defensive capabilities without altering regional military balance, providing critical asymmetric warfare tools like HIMARS and anti-tank systems that deter invasion. Washington's approval shows bipartisan resolve to help Taiwan maintain adequate defenses as threats intensify.

Pro-China narrative

Arms sales to Taiwan persistently strain U.S.-China relations and fuel dangerous tensions over an island Beijing views as its sovereign territory. This record-breaking weapons package risks escalating military confrontation in the region and undermines diplomatic efforts between Washington and Beijing. The deal transforms Taiwan into a militarized powder keg that could drag America into direct conflict with a nuclear-armed China.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 12% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



The Controversies



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Establishment split

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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0