Climate-driven changes in Mediterranean grain trade mitigated famine but introduced the Black Death to medieval Europe
Nature1 day
Study: Volcanic Eruptions Brought the Black Death to Europe
Did volcanic climate change trigger the Black Death, or did pre-existing plague conditions determine the pandemic's spread?
Above: A view of the ruined ancient Roman city of Pompeii, still partially buried by the 1345 eruption of Mount Vesuvius, near Naples, Italy, on Jan. 16, 2024. Image credit: Pablo Esparza/Anadolu/Getty Images
The Spin
Climate-concerned narrative
Volcanic eruptions around 1345 directly caused the Black Death pandemic by triggering climate changes that forced Italian merchants to import plague-infected grain from the Black Sea. The eruption created a domino effect — sulfate aerosols blocked sunlight, crops failed across the Mediterranean and desperate grain imports carried Yersinia pestis-infected fleas that jumped to humans within weeks of arrival. This rare confluence of environmental and social factors demonstrates how climate disasters can inadvertently introduce devastating pandemics.
Climate-skeptic narrative
The Black Death happened when it did because plague infrastructure was already established in Europe long before any volcanic eruption. While climate changes after 1345 may have influenced grain trade routes, major Italian cities like Milan and Rome avoided the plague entirely despite the same climate conditions, proving that local disease reservoirs and existing rodent-flea vectors determined outbreak patterns. Volcanic activity was merely one short-term factor among many long-established conditions that enabled the pandemic.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 9% chance that if a global catastrophe occurs, it will be due to naturally occurring pandemics, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Go Deeper
Articles on this story
© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0