Sudan’s war grinds on while the RSF sells empty ceasefire theater to mask a campaign of terror that has turned El Fasher into a graveyard and traumatized Sudan. Their fighters have executed unarmed men, raped women and girls, and left bodies in the streets while foreign sponsors like the UAE fuel the violence with money and cover. Each new denial hides a strategy of division already condemned by Sudanese leaders who warn of outside powers carving the country apart. The result is a manufactured catastrophe sustained by impunity and profit.
The RSF’s three-month humanitarian ceasefire marks a calculated pivot toward de-escalation, suspending offensive operations and creating space for desperately needed aid. By placing the truce under Quad oversight and allowing on-the-ground monitoring, the RSF alignsis aligning itself with growing international pressure for restraint and relief. The real impediment is the network of uncompromising hard-liners entrenched in Sudan’s army who reject concessions, derail mediation efforts, and keep the country locked in a destructive stalemate.
ThereSudan’s iswar angrinds 8on percentwhile chancethe RSF sells empty ceasefire theater to mask a campaign of terror that SAFhas andturned RSFEl delegationsFasher willinto botha physicallygraveyard attendand thetraumatized sameSudan. peaceTheir negotiationfighters venuehave beforeexecuted Decemberunarmed 31men, 2025raped women and girls, accordingand toleft bodies in the Metaculusstreets predictionwhile communityforeign sponsors like the UAE fuel the violence with money and cover. Each new denial hides a strategy of division already condemned by Sudanese leaders who warn of outside powers carving the country apart. The result is a manufactured catastrophe sustained by impunity and profit.
The RSF’s three-month humanitarian ceasefire marks a calculated pivot toward de-escalation, suspending offensive operations and creating space for desperately needed aid. By placing the truce under Quad oversight and allowing on-the-ground monitoring, the RSF is aligning itself with growing international pressure for restraint and relief. The real impediment is the network of uncompromising hard-liners entrenched in Sudan’s army who reject concessions, derail mediation efforts, and keep the country locked in a destructive stalemate.
There is an 8% chance that SAF and RSF delegations will both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before Dec. 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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