Donald Trump

Joe Biden

Atlantic Council

Negar Mortazavi

J Street

Abbas Araghchi

Michael Rubin

Daniel Shapiro

Kenneth Katzman

Alexander Langlois

Jim Lobe

Jean-Noel Barrot

Mohammed Ghaedi

Beto O Rourke

Ray Takeyh

Douglas London

SpecialEurasia

Ray McGovern

Metaculus

"Despite the heightened tensions, a full-scale war [between the U.S. and Iran] remains unlikely in the immediate term."

"Trump has been clear in his desire to resolve the issue diplomatically and avoid war [with Iran] in the Middle East."

"Despite all the hysteria of war, I'm not really seeing that on the horizon."

"It is highly unlikely that Trump will bomb Iran, not least because he vowed on the presidential campaign trail not to drag the United States into a war."

"The potential of some kind of conflict with Iran escalating into a larger regional war is very real, possibly more real than ever."

"The United States now seems close to a direct conflict that Biden (and Iran) have worked hard to avoid."

"[A] full-scale war is hardly inevitable."

"If they [Iran] don't make a deal [with the US], there will be bombing."

Will There Be a US-Iran War?

Benjamin Netanyahu

Ali Khamenei

Masoud Pezeshkian

Scott Ritter

Kelsey Davenport

Rafael Mariano Grossi

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

Polymarket

Tulsi Gabbard

Mehdi Hasan

Tamir Hayman

Kamal Kharazi

Barry R McCaffrey

Iran Watch

Hui Zhang

War Monitor

S.L. Kanthan

The New York Times

"No, we're not thinking about nuclear weapons."

"We have no intention of obtaining these weapons at all."

"Iran doesn't have nukes, isn't building nukes, and hasn't made the decision to build nukes."

"Iran doesn't have a bomb, and doesn't appear to be trying to make a bomb."

"They are definitely going for a nuclear weapon there is no question."

"They can have [a nuclear weapon], you know, in a matter of months, I would say."

Iran could produce a nuclear weapon "within a few months, less than a year."

Will Iran Possess a Nuclear Weapon?

The Institute for the Study of War

Csis

The Economist

Imad Salamey

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib

Fitch Ratings

Esmaeil Baghaei

Steven Cook

Samih Maaitah

Hakan Fidan

Abiola Falayajo Jr.

James Jos. Kroeger

Prof. Paul Brown, PhD

James A. Kostohryz

Kenneth Pollack

"Neither Iran nor Lebanese Hezbollah is at all likely to pursue such a course of action [a full-scale attack on Israel]."

"The fighting will remain contained between Israel and Iran, and will not persist for more than a few weeks."

"Iran is unlikely to launch an all-out confrontation with Israel over Haniyeh's assassination."

"An all-out war between Israel and Iran is not inevitable, but it remains a serious risk."

"Israel & US manufactured a fake crisis with Iran that could lead to all-out war."

"There will be an all-out war between Israel and Iran and Iran will successfully disrupt flows through Strait of Hormuz."

"This [a wider Israeli war with Iran] is now more likely."

"[T]he Middle East is an inch away from an all-out war between Israel and Iran."

Will There Be a Full-Scale Israel-Iran War?

Marco Rubio

J.D. Vance

John Ratcliffe

Nicole Grajewski


Nicholas L. Miller

Spencer Faragasso

Eyal Zamir


Stephen D. Mull


Darya Dolzikova

Andrea Stricker

Sean Parnell

David Albright

Israel Atomic Energy Commission

"If it [the stockpile of enriched uranium] is intact and Iran is able to keep it that way, they could potentially use it in a new covert enrichment facility to produce material for several nuclear weapons in a matter of months."

"I can say to the American people with great confidence that they [Iranians] are much further away from a nuclear program today than they were 24 hours ago."

"Our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that's for sure."

"Israel's and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran's centrifuge enrichment program."

"The American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran's military nuclear program, has set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years."

"Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated."

Have US Strikes Set Back Iran's Nuclear Program?

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran is no longer enriching uranium at any site in the country following attacks on its nuclear facilities in June, while maintaining that all facilities remain under International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring.</span

Tasnim News Agency

Fox 56

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran is no longer enriching uranium at any site in the country following attacks on its nuclear facilities in June, while maintaining that all facilities remain under International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring.

Iran's foreign minister indicated that Western governments have renewed calls to resume nuclear talks after military actions failed to achieve their objectives, though he emphasized negotiations must be based on respect rather than pressure or maximalist demands.</span

Madhyamam Online

XINHUA

Iran's foreign minister indicated that Western governments have renewed calls to resume nuclear talks after military actions failed to achieve their objectives, though he emphasized negotiations must be based on respect rather than pressure or maximalist demands.

The 12-day conflict in June involved Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites beginning June 13, followed by US attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan on June 22, before ending with a ceasefire on June 24.</span

The 12-day conflict in June involved Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites beginning June 13, followed by US attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan on June 22, before ending with a ceasefire on June 24.

Iranian officials reported that previous nuclear negotiations with the US had reached a potential agreement involving an Iran-based consortium with American involvement for uranium enrichment, but the arrangement collapsed due to what they termed spoilers in Washington.</span

Guardian

Iranian officials reported that previous nuclear negotiations with the US had reached a potential agreement involving an Iran-based consortium with American involvement for uranium enrichment, but the arrangement collapsed due to what they termed spoilers in Washington.

Iran has restricted International Atomic Energy Agency inspector access to bombed nuclear sites citing security concerns, while the agency seeks inspections at seven targeted facilities including Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan to verify uranium stockpiles.</span

Al Jazeera

The Arab Weekly

Iran has restricted International Atomic Energy Agency inspector access to bombed nuclear sites citing security concerns, while the agency seeks inspections at seven targeted facilities including Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan to verify uranium stockpiles.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump during a three-day visit beginning November 17, with discussions expected to cover political, economic and security issues following the Gaza ceasefire.</span

Mehr News Agency

Roya News

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump during a three-day visit beginning November 17, with discussions expected to cover political, economic and security issues following the Gaza ceasefire.

Iran Halts Uranium Enrichment After June Nuclear Strikes

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Iran Halts Uranium Enrichment After June Nuclear Strikes

The Controversies

SpecialEurasia

Shapiro

Takeyh

Ghaedi

Lobe

Council

London

Trump

Khamenei

Pezeshkian

Hasan

Ritter

Monitor

Grossi

Netanyahu

War

Ratings

Alkhatib

Jr.

PhD

Kostohryz

Cook

Economist

Miller

Vance

Baghaei

Albright

Commission

Trump

Go Deeper

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