Snapshot 8:Mon, Oct 6, 2025 4:08:52 PM GMT last edited by Nick

Court Blocks Trump's Birthright Citizenship Order

Fifth Court Blocks Trump's Birthright Citizenship Order

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1 day ago

Above: People outside the U.S. Supreme Court protesting a ban on birthright citizenship in Washington, D.C. on May 15, 2025. Image copyright: Jim Watson/Getty Images

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The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 15% chance that any U.S. authority will refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in 2025-26, compared to a 25% chance for 2027-28.

SCOTUSTrump's already settled birthright citizenship moreorder thanis ablatantly centuryunconstitutional ago,and inhas thebeen caseunanimously ofrejected Wongby Kimevery Ark,single establishingjudge thatwho citizenshipreviewed appliesit onlyacross tomultiple childrencourts. whoseThe parentsorder haveviolates lawfulthe permissionclear tomeaning resideof inthe America.Fourteenth Trump'sAmendment, orderdenying substantiallycitizenship compliesto withchildren thisjust 127-year-oldlike precedentfreed thatslaves excludesafter childrenthe ofCivil illegal aliens from automatic citizenshipWar.

Reason.com

There'sSCOTUS already settled birthright citizenship more than a 15%century chanceago, thatin anythe U.S.case authorityof willWong refuseKim toArk, recognizeestablishing thethat citizenship ofapplies U.S.-bornonly to children ofwhose non-citizen parents forhave 90lawful dayspermission to reside in 2025America. Trump's order substantially complies with this 127-26,year-old comparedprecedent tothat aexcludes 25%children chanceof forillegal 2027-28aliens from automatic citizenship.