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Trump shattered a functioning nuclear accord, crushed Iran’s moderates, emboldened hardliners, and pushed Tehran closer to weapons-grade uranium — all while claiming to prevent exactly that. His reckless exit from the JCPOA didn’t forge peace through strength; it fractured diplomacy through ego. Now, we face a region more volatile, a nuclear threat more real, and trust harder than ever to rebuild.
There is a 1% chance the U.S. and Iran will sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.