Live updates: Congress passes Trumps big, beautiful bill

National Review

Much Costlier Big Beautiful Bill Primed To Pass The House Without Changes

Wall Street Journal

Trump Pushes Republicans To Pass Stalled Megabill Dc84B7Fc

Jerome Powell

Metaculus

Oxford Economics

Torsten Sløk

Kristina Hooper

U.S Chamber of Commerce

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

Howard Lutnick

Polymarket

Peter Berezin

Olu Sonola

Samy Chaar

American Bankers Association

Joseph Brusuelas

Wells Fargo

James Doti

Michael Gapen

William J. Luther 

Matt Schoeppner

John Hussman

Bruce Kasman

Bernard Markstein

Yelena Maleyev

Mike Englund

Steven Hanke

Mark Zandi

Paul Gruenwald

Neil Shearing

Brian Moynihan

J.P. Morgan

Larry Summers

"We believe there will be no recession in 2025."

The likelihood of a recession is "getting close to 50-50."

"Barring an unforeseeable event, the economy should grow even better in 2025 than it did in 2023 and 2024."

"The threat of a recession is real."

"Contrary to popular perception, the US is at greater risk of a recession than it was in early 2022."

Will the US Go into Recession in 2025?

<h2></h2>

House Republicans passed President Donald Trump's $4.5 trillion tax and spending cuts bill Thursday by a narrow 218-214 vote, with two Republicans joining all Democrats in opposition after an overnight struggle to secure enough votes for passage.</span

New York Times

House Republicans passed President Donald Trump's $4.5 trillion tax and spending cuts bill Thursday by a narrow 218-214 vote, with two Republicans joining all Democrats in opposition after an overnight struggle to secure enough votes for passage.

The legislation, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/senate-passes-trumps-t-bill-in-tiebreaking-vote">which passed the Senate on Tuesday</a>, extends 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire, and adds new ones, including no taxes on tips and overtime; cuts $1.2 trillion from Medicaid and food stamps through work requirements; and reduces green energy tax credits.

Associated Press

The legislation, which passed the Senate on Tuesday, extends 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire, and adds new ones, including no taxes on tips and overtime; cuts $1.2 trillion from Medicaid and food stamps through work requirements; and reduces green energy tax credits.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) set a record for the longest House floor speech from just before 4:00 a.m. to about 1:30 p.m. Thursday, using his "magic minute" privilege, which allows party leaders to speak as long as they want, to delay the vote by reading constituent letters.

Foxnews

Politico

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) set a record for the longest House floor speech from just before 4:00 a.m. to about 1:30 p.m. Thursday, using his "magic minute" privilege, which allows party leaders to speak as long as they want, to delay the vote by reading constituent letters.

Republican holdouts initially blocked the bill Wednesday evening, which saw Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) work through the night with Trump's direct involvement to flip votes and advance the measure.

Daily Wire

Republican holdouts initially blocked the bill Wednesday evening, which saw Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) work through the night with Trump's direct involvement to flip votes and advance the measure.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the package will add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over a decade and take government health coverage away from 11.8 million people due to Medicaid cuts and work requirements. The Medicaid cuts are expected to save over $1 trillion.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the package will add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over a decade and take government health coverage away from 11.8 million people due to Medicaid cuts and work requirements. The Medicaid cuts are expected to save over $1 trillion.

Trump, who set an unofficial July 4 deadline to pass the bill, met with conservative and moderate Republicans Wednesday to garner support, emphasizing tax cuts while downplaying Medicaid concerns. It now heads to the White House for his signature.

Trump, who set an unofficial July 4 deadline to pass the bill, met with conservative and moderate Republicans Wednesday to garner support, emphasizing tax cuts while downplaying Medicaid concerns. It now heads to the White House for his signature.

President Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" is a triumph for America, securing a brighter future with historic tax cuts made permanent, boosted border security, and innovative policies like ending taxes on tips and overtime. Despite fierce opposition, the House's 218-214 vote, just in time for America's birthday, marks a bold next step into America's new golden age.

President Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" is a triumph for America, securing a brighter future with historic tax cuts made permanent, boosted border security, and innovative policies like ending taxes on tips and overtime. Despite fierce opposition, the House's 218-214 vote, just in time for America's birthday, marks a bold next step into America's new golden age.

Big, Beautiful, And On The Way To Trumps Desk: Congress Passes Historic Spending Bill

Republican narrative

This bill is a fiscal disaster, adding $3 trillion to the debt over a decade while also slashing social programs like Medicaid. In a high-inflation, high-interest-rate economy, this reckless spending ignores soaring debt interest costs. Unpopular among voters and even some Republicans, the bill sets a dangerous baseline that could force painful concessions and deepen America's fiscal crisis.

This bill is a fiscal disaster, adding $3 trillion to the debt over a decade while also slashing social programs like Medicaid. In a high-inflation, high-interest-rate economy, this reckless spending ignores soaring debt interest costs. Unpopular among voters and even some Republicans, the bill sets a dangerous baseline that could force painful concessions and deepen America's fiscal crisis.

Opinion | What Are Republicans Thinking With Such a Reckless Bill? Maybe This.

Democratic narrative

There is a 50% chance that the U.S. national debt will reach $50 trillion by Nov. 19, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 50% chance that the U.S. national debt will reach $50 trillion by Nov. 19, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Date of US National Debt over $50 Trillion

Nerd narrative

Donald Trump

Hakeem Jeffries

Mike Johnson

Alex Wroblewski/AFP/Getty Images