This Tribunal represents a historic step toward accountability for Russia's unprovoked aggression against Ukraine. The international community cannot allow Putin and his cronies to escape justice for launching an illegal war that has caused immense suffering. While the ICC handles war crimes, this new court fills a critical gap by targeting the fundamental decision to invade a sovereign nation.
The Council of Europe's new tribunal, intended to address the crime of aggression against Ukraine against Russia, faces significant legal hurdles. These include jurisdictional challenges, potential conflicts with national laws and international conventions, and practical difficulties in enforcing its rulings, particularly concerning immunity for high-ranking Russian officials.
ThereThis isTribunal represents a 50%historic chancestep Vladimirtoward accountability for Russia's unprovoked aggression against Ukraine. The international community cannot allow Putin willand ceasehis cronies to holdescape justice for launching an illegal war that has caused immense suffering. While the officeICC ofhandles Presidentwar ofcrimes, Russiathis new court fills a critical gap by Januarytargeting 11,the 2030,fundamental accordingdecision to theinvade Metaculusa predictionsovereign communitynation.
There is a 50% chance Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by January 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.