Metaculus

When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?

Liz Truss

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Jake Sullivan

Dmitry Peskov

John Kirby

Daniel DePetris

Mykhailo Podolyak

Petro Poroshenko

Andrey Illarionov

Dmytro Kuleba

David Von Drehle

Oleksiy Reznikov

Sergei Shoigu

Dmitry Gorenburg

Ivan Losev

Aleksey Arestovich

Andrzej Duda

James Stavridis

Dmitry Medvedev

Jason Jay Smart

Beth Knobe

Dmitri Alperovitch

Richard Branson

When Will the Russia-Ukraine War End?

<span>The special tribunal represents the first time the Council of Europe has established such a court, with the mandate to prosecute high-level political and military figures responsible for the decision to use armed force against Ukraine in violation of the UN Charter. The tribunal could theoretically prosecute senior Russian officials up to President Vladimir Putin, though sitting heads of state enjoy immunity from prosecution while in office.</span

Euromaidan Press

Al Jazeera

The special tribunal represents the first time the Council of Europe has established such a court, with the mandate to prosecute high-level political and military figures responsible for the decision to use armed force against Ukraine in violation of the UN Charter. The tribunal could theoretically prosecute senior Russian officials up to President Vladimir Putin, though sitting heads of state enjoy immunity from prosecution while in office.

<span>The International Criminal Court already issued arrest warrants for Putin over the abduction of Ukrainian children and four Russian commanders for targeting civilians, but lacks jurisdiction to prosecute the crime of aggression. The new tribunal complements the ICC's efforts by specifically targeting officials responsible for starting the war, with the ability to hold trials in absentia and no statute of limitations on aggression crimes.</span

Arab News

Associated Press

The International Criminal Court already issued arrest warrants for Putin over the abduction of Ukrainian children and four Russian commanders for targeting civilians, but lacks jurisdiction to prosecute the crime of aggression. The new tribunal complements the ICC's efforts by specifically targeting officials responsible for starting the war, with the ability to hold trials in absentia and no statute of limitations on aggression crimes.

<span>Logistical details remain unresolved, including the tribunal's location, though The Hague has been suggested due to its existing legal infrastructure and Zelenskyy called it "perfect." The institution will be funded by the Core Group of 40 supporting countries, including the Netherlands, Japan and Canada, though the Trump administration withdrew U.S. support for the initiative.</span

EuroNews

Newsmax

Logistical details remain unresolved, including the tribunal's location, though The Hague has been suggested due to its existing legal infrastructure and Zelenskyy called it "perfect." The institution will be funded by the Core Group of 40 supporting countries, including the Netherlands, Japan and Canada, though the Trump administration withdrew U.S. support for the initiative.

<span>The tribunal's prosecutorial independence has raised concerns among legal experts, as the agreement gives Ukraine's Prosecutor General sole authority to submit names and evidence to initiate cases. International law scholar Gleb Bogush noted this "raises serious concerns about impartiality" and significantly limits the tribunal's ability to act independently of Ukrainian referrals.</span

The Kyiv Independent

The tribunal's prosecutorial independence has raised concerns among legal experts, as the agreement gives Ukraine's Prosecutor General sole authority to submit names and evidence to initiate cases. International law scholar Gleb Bogush noted this "raises serious concerns about impartiality" and significantly limits the tribunal's ability to act independently of Ukrainian referrals.

<span>Zelenskyy emphasized the need for European unity and strong ties with the United States under President Trump following their meeting at the NATO summit in The Hague. The Ukrainian president stated that "aggression leads to punishment" and called for "strong political and legal courage" to ensure Russian war criminals face justice, comparing the tribunal to post-World War II Nuremberg trials.</span

The Straits Times

Le Monde.fr

Zelenskyy emphasized the need for European unity and strong ties with the United States under President Trump following their meeting at the NATO summit in The Hague. The Ukrainian president stated that "aggression leads to punishment" and called for "strong political and legal courage" to ensure Russian war criminals face justice, comparing the tribunal to post-World War II Nuremberg trials.

Metaculus #0

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Zelenskyy and Council of Europe sign agreement to launch tribunal for war in Ukraine

Europe

Russia

Ukraine

War crimes

The tribunal's structure raises serious questions about fairness and independence, with Ukraine controlling which cases get prosecuted. Legal immunity protections mean Putin and other top officials remain untouchable while in power, making this more symbolic than substantive. The withdrawal of U.S. support under Trump further undermines the court's credibility and effectiveness.

<span>The tribunal's structure raises serious questions about fairness and independence, with Ukraine controlling which cases get prosecuted. Legal immunity protections mean Putin and other top officials remain untouchable while in power, making this more symbolic than substantive. The withdrawal of U.S. support under Trump further undermines the court's credibility and effectiveness.</span>

Zelenskyy Will Sign Off on Special Tribunal to Prosecute Russian Leaders Over Ukraine

Ukraine Europe War Tribunal Putin

Ukraine, Council of Europe Sign Accord for Russia War Tribunal

Ukraine, Council of Europe Sign Accord for Russia War Tribunal

ZelenskyyUkraine, and Council of Europe signSign agreementAccord to launch tribunal for warRussia inWar UkraineTribunal

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Ukraine, Council of Europe Sign Accord for Russia War Tribunal

ZelenskyyUkraine, and Council of Europe signSign agreementAccord to launch tribunal for warRussia inWar UkraineTribunal

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