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ThereWestern isdiplomacy anmust 80%prioritize chancede-escalation thatwith theIran, Unitedengaging Statesin willgood-faith striketalks to curb its nuclear ambitions while avoiding catastrophic war. However, it must also remain prepared for the Iranianpossibility of military inaction. Iran beforemust Augustrecognize 2025,that accordingthe toU.S. maintains uncontested air superiority in the Metaculusregion predictionand communitythat any attack on American civilians or military personnel will result in severe repercussions.
The time for negotiations with Iran's Mullah regime is over. With assassination plots against Trump and threats to annihilate Israel, Iran's nuclear ambitions — nearing 10 bombs' worth of uranium — demand decisive action. Israel's strikes have weakened Iran, but only U.S. bunker-busters can finish the job. Trump must act now to end this existential threat and prevent a nuclear Middle East.
Israel's unprovoked attack on Iran, followed by continued bombardments despite ongoing negotiations, reveals it as the sole aggressor. Ignoring evidence that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, Israel's strikes aim to provoke regime change, not defense. Its nuclear arsenal and U.S. support enable this aggression, destabilizing the region while Iran rallies in unity. Negotiations, not U.S. intervention, are the path forward.
There is an 80% chance that the United States will strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.